DEGREE OR NO DEGREE

October 7, 2017


The availability of information in books (as always), on the Internet, through seminars and professional shows, scientific publications, pod-casts, Webinars, etc. is amazing in today’s “digital age”.  That begs the question—Is a college degree really necessary?   Can you rise to a level of competence and succeed by being self-taught?  For most, a college degree is the way to open doors. For a precious few, however, no help is needed.

Let’s look at twelve (12) individuals who did just that.

The co-founder of Apple and the force behind the iPod, iPhone, and iPad, Steve Jobs attended Reed College, an academically-rigorous liberal arts college with a heavy emphasis on social sciences and literature. Shortly after enrolling in 1972, however, he dropped out and took a job as a technician at Atari.

Legendary industrialist Howard Hughes is often said to have graduated from Cal Tech, but the truth is that the California school has no record of his having attended classes there. He did enroll at Rice University in Texas in 1924, but dropped out prematurely due the death of his father.

Arguably Harvard’s most famous dropout, Bill Gates was already an accomplished software programmer when he started as a freshman at the Massachusetts campus in 1973. His passion for software actually began before high school, at the Lakeside School in Seattle, Washington, where he was programming in BASIC by age 13.

Just like his fellow Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, Paul Allen was a college dropout.

Like Gates, he was also a star student (a perfect score on the SAT) who honed his programming skills at the Lakeside School in Seattle. Unlike Gates, however, he went on to study at Washington State University before leaving in his second year to work as a programmer at Honeywell in Boston.

Even for his time, Thomas Edison had little formal education. His schooling didn’t start until age eight, and then only lasted a few months.

Edison said that he learned most of his reading, writing, and math at home from his mother. Still, he became known as one of America’s most prolific inventors, amassing 1,093 U.S. patents and changing the world with such devices as the phonograph, fluoroscope, stock ticker, motion picture camera, mechanical vote recorder, and long-lasting incandescent electric light bulb. He is also credited with patenting a system of electrical power distribution for homes, businesses, and factories.

Michael Dell, founder of Dell Computer Corp., seemed destined for a career in the computer industry long before he dropped out of the University of Texas. He purchased his first calculator at age seven, applied to take a high school equivalency exam at age eight, and performed his first computer teardown at age 15.

A pioneer of early television technology, Philo T. Farnsworth was a brilliant student who dropped out of Brigham Young University after the death of his father, according to Biography.com.

Although born in a log cabin, Farnsworth quickly grasped technical concepts, sketching out his revolutionary idea for a television vacuum tube while still in high school, much to the confusion of teachers and fellow students.

Credited with inventing the controls that made fixed-wing powered flight possible, the Wright Brothers had little formal education.

Neither attended college, but they gained technical knowledge from their experiences working with printing presses, bicycles, and motors. By doing so, they were able to develop a three-axis controller, which served as the means to steer and maintain the equilibrium of an aircraft.

Stanford Ovshinsky managed to amass 400 patents covering subjects ranging from nickel-metal hydride batteries to amorphous silicon semiconductors to hydrogen fuel cells, all without the benefit of a college education. He is best known for his formation of Energy Conversion Devices and his pioneering work in nickel-metal hydride batteries, which have been widely used in hybrid and electric cars, as well as laptop computers, digital cameras, and cell phones.

Preston Tucker, designer of the infamous 1948 Tucker sedan, worked as a machinist, police officer and car salesman, but was not known to have attended college. Still, he managed to become founder of the Tucker Aviation Corp. and the Tucker Corp.

Larry Ellison dropped out of his pre-med studies at the University of Illinois in his second year and left the University of Chicago after only one term, but his brief academic experiences eventually led him to the top of the computer industry.

A Harvard dropout, Mark Zuckerberg was considered a prodigy before he even set foot on campus.

He began doing BASIC programming in middle school, created an instant messaging system while in high school, and learned to read and write French, Hebrew, Latin, and ancient Greek prior to enrolling in college.

CONCLUSIONS:

In conclusions, I want to leave you with a quote from President Calvin Coolidge:

Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.

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NATIONAL TELEPHONE DAY

April 25, 2017


OK, are you ready for a bit of ridiculous trivia?  Today, 25 April 2017, is National Telephone Day.  I do not think there will be any denial that the telephone has revolutionized communication the world over.

It was February 14, 1876, when Marcellus Bailey, one of Alexander Graham Bell’s attorneys rushed into the US Patent office in Boston to file for what would later be called the telephone. Later that same day, Elisha Gray filed a patent caveat for a similar device. A caveat is an intent to file for a patent. There is also a third contender, Antonio Meucci.  Mr. Meucci filed a caveat in November of 1871 for a talking telegraph but failed to renew the caveat due to hardships. Because Bell’s patent was submitted first, it was awarded to him on March 7, 1876. Gray contested this decision in court, but without success.

Born March 3, 1847, in Edinburgh, United Kingdom, Bell was an instructor at a boys’ boarding school. The sounds of speech were an integral part of his life. His father developed a “Visible Speech” system for deaf students to communicate. Bell would later become friend and benefactor of Helen Keller. Three days after his patent was approved, Bell spoke the first words by telephone to his assistant. “Mr. Watson, come here! I want to see you!”  By May of the same year, Bell and his team were ready for a public demonstration, and there would be no better place than the World’s Fair in Philadelphia. On May 10, 1876, in a crowded Machinery Hall a man’s voice was transmitted from a small horn and carried out through a speaker to the audience. One year later, the White House installed its first phone. The telephone revolution began. Bell Telephone Company was founded on July 9, 1877, and the first public telephone lines were installed from Boston to Sommerville, Massachusetts the same year.  By the end of the decade, there were nearly 50,000 phones in the United States.  In May of 1967, the 1 millionth telephone was installed.

Growing up in in the 50’s, I remember the rotary telephone shown by the digital picture below.  We were on a three-party line.  As I recall, ours was a two-ring phone call.  Of course, there was snooping.  Big time snooping by the other two families on our line.

Let’s take a quick look at how the cell phone has literally taken over this communication method.

  • The number of mobile devices rose nine (9) percent in the first six months of 2011, to 327.6 million — more than the 315 million people living in the U.S., Puerto Rico, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Wireless network data traffic rose 111 percent, to 341.2 billion megabytes, during the same period.
  • Nearly two-thirds of Americans are now smartphone owners, and for many these devices are a key entry point to the online world. Sixty-four percent( 64) ofAmerican adults now own a smartphone of some kind, up from thirty-five percent (35%) in the spring of 2011. Smartphone ownership is especially high among younger Americans, as well as those with relatively high income and education levels.
  • Ten percent (10%) of Americans own a smartphone but do not have any other form of high-speed internet access at home beyond their phone’s data plan.
  • Using a broader measure of the access options available to them, fifteen percent (15% of Americans own a smartphone but say that they have a limited number of ways to get online other than their cell phone.
  • Younger adults — Fifteen percent (15%) of Americans ages 18-29 are heavily dependent on a smartphone for online access.
  • Those with low household incomes and levels of educational attainment — Some thirteen percent (13%) of Americans with an annual household income of less than $30,000 per year are smartphone-dependent. Just one percent (1%) of Americans from households earning more than $75,000 per year rely on their smartphones to a similar degree for online access.
  • Non-whites — Twelve percent (12%) of African Americans and thirteen percent (13%) of Latinos are smartphone-dependent, compared with four percent (4%) of whites
  • Sixty-two percent (62%) of smartphone owners have used their phone in the past year to look up information about a health condition
  • Fifty-seven percent (57%) have used their phone to do online banking.
  • Forty-four percent (44%) have used their phone to look up real estate listings or other information about a place to live.
  • Forty-three percent (43%) to look up information about a job.
  • Forty percent (40%) to look up government services or information.
  • Thirty percent (30%) to take a class or get educational content
  • Eighteen percent (18%) to submit a job application.
  • Sixty-eight percent (68%) of smartphone owners use their phone at least occasionally to follow along with breaking news events, with thirty-three percent (33%) saying that they do this “frequently.”
  • Sixty-seven percent (67%) use their phone to share pictures, videos, or commentary about events happening in their community, with 35% doing so frequently.
  • Fifty-six percent (56%) use their phone at least occasionally to learn about community events or activities, with eighteen percent (18%) doing this “frequently.”

OK, by now you get the picture.  The graphic below will basically summarize the cell phone phenomenon relative to other digital devices including desktop and laptop computers. By the way, laptop and desktop computer purchases have somewhat declined due to the increased usage of cell phones for communication purposes.

The number of smart phone users in the United States from 2012 to a projected 2021 in millions is given below.

CONCLUSION: “Big Al” (Mr. Bell that is.) probably knew he was on to something.  At any rate, the trend will continue towards infinity over the next few decades.

 

RISE OF THE MACHINES

March 20, 2017


Movie making today is truly remarkable.  To me, one of the very best parts is animation created by computer graphics.  I’ve attended “B” movies just to see the graphic displays created by talented programmers.  The “Terminator” series, at least the first movie in that series, really captures the creative essence of graphic design technology.  I won’t replay the movie for you but, the “terminator” goes back in time to carry out its prime directive—Kill John Conner.  The terminator, a robotic humanoid, has decision-making capability as well as human-like mobility that allows the plot to unfold.  Artificial intelligence or AI is a fascinating technology many companies are working on today.  Let’s get a proper definition of AI as follows:

“the theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between languages.”

Question:  Are Siri, Cortana, and Alexa eventually going to be more literate than humans? Anyone excited about the recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning should also be concerned about human literacy as well. That’s according to Protect Literacy , a global campaign, backed by education company Pearson, aimed at creating awareness and fighting against illiteracy.

Project Literacy, which has been raising awareness for its cause at SXSW 2017, recently released a report, “ 2027: Human vs. Machine Literacy ,” that projects machines powered by AI and voice recognition will surpass the literacy levels of one in seven American adults in the next ten (10) years. “While these systems currently have a much shallower understanding of language than people do, they can already perform tasks similar to simple text search task…exceeding the abilities of millions of people who are nonliterate,” Kate James, Project Literacy spokesperson and Chief Corporate Affairs and Global Marketing Officer at Pearson, wrote in the report. In light of this the organization is calling for “society to commit to upgrading its people at the same rate as upgrading its technology, so that by 2030 no child is born at risk of poor literacy.”  (I would invite you to re-read this statement and shudder in your boots as I did.)

While the past twenty-five (25) years have seen disappointing progress in U.S. literacy, there have been huge gains in linguistic performance by a totally different type of actor – computers. Dramatic advances in natural language processing (Hirschberg and Manning, 2015) have led to the rise of language technologies like search engines and machine translation that “read” text and produce answers or translations that are useful for people. While these systems currently have a much shallower understanding of language than people do, they can already perform tasks similar to the simple text search task above – exceeding the abilities of millions of people who are nonliterate.

According to the National National Centre for Education Statistics machine literacy has already exceeded the literacy abilities of the estimated three percent (3%) of non-literate adults in the US.

Comparing demographic data from the Global Developer Population and Demographic Study 2016 v2 and the 2015 Digest of Education Statistics finds there are more software engineers in the U.S. than school teachers, “We are focusing so much on teaching algorithms and AI to be better at language that we are forgetting that fifty percent (50%)  of adults cannot read a book written at an eighth grade level,” Project Literacy said in a statement.  I retired from General Electric Appliances.   Each engineer was required to write, or at least the first draft, of the Use and Care Manuals for specific cooking products.  We were instructed to 1.) Use plenty of graphic examples and 2.) Write for a fifth-grade audience.  Even with that, we know from experience that many consumers never use and have no intention of reading their Use and Care Manual.  With this being the case, many of the truly cool features are never used.  They may as well buy the most basic product.

Research done by Business Insider reveals that thirty-two (32) million Americans cannot currently read a road sign. Yet at the same time there are ten (10) million self-driving cars predicted to be on the roads by 2020. (One could argue this will further eliminate the need for literacy, but that is debatable.)  If we look at literacy rates for the top ten (10) countries on our planet we see the following:

Citing research from Venture Scanner , Project Literacy found that in 2015 investment in AI technologies, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and image recognition, reached $47.2 billion. Meanwhile, data on US government spending shows that the 2017 U.S. Federal Education Budget for schools (pre-primary through secondary school) is $40.4 billion.  I’m not too sure funding for education always goes to benefit students education. In other words, throwing more money at this problem may not always provide desired results, but there is no doubt, funding for AI will only increase.

“Human literacy levels have stalled since 2000. At any time, this would be a cause for concern, when one in ten people worldwide…still cannot read a road sign, a voting form, or a medicine label,” James wrote in the report. “In popular discussion about advances in artificial intelligence, it is easy

CONCLUSION:  AI will only continue to advance and there will come a time when robotic systems will be programmed with basic decision-making skills.  To me, this is not only fascinating but more than a little scary.

THE NEXT FIVE (5) YEARS

February 15, 2017


As you well know, there are many projections relative to economies, stock market, sports teams, entertainment, politics, technology, etc.   People the world over have given their projections for what might happen in 2017.  The world of computing technology is absolutely no different.  Certain information for this post is taken from the publication “COMPUTER.org/computer” web site.  These guys are pretty good at projections and have been correct multiple times over the past two decades.  They take their information from the IEEE.

The IEEE Computer Society is the world’s leading membership organization dedicated to computer science and technology. Serving more than 60,000 members, the IEEE Computer Society is the trusted information, networking, and career-development source for a global community of technology leaders that includes researchers, educators, software engineers, IT professionals, employers, and students.  In addition to conferences and publishing, the IEEE Computer Society is a leader in professional education and training, and has forged development and provider partnerships with major institutions and corporations internationally. These rich, self-selected, and self-paced programs help companies improve the quality of their technical staff and attract top talent while reducing costs.

With these credentials, you might expect them to be on the cutting edge of computer technology and development and be ahead of the curve as far as computer technology projections.  Let’s take a look.  Some of this absolutely blows me away.

human-brain-interface

This effort first started within the medical profession and is continuing as research progresses.  It’s taken time but after more than a decade of engineering work, researchers at Brown University and a Utah company, Blackrock Microsystems, have commercialized a wireless device that can be attached to a person’s skull and transmit via radio thought commands collected from a brain implant. Blackrock says it will seek clearance for the system from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, so that the mental remote control can be tested in volunteers, possibly as soon as this year.

The device was developed by a consortium, called BrainGate, which is based at Brown and was among the first to place implants in the brains of paralyzed people and show that electrical signals emitted by neurons inside the cortex could be recorded, then used to steer a wheelchair or direct a robotic arm (see “Implanting Hope”).

A major limit to these provocative experiments has been that patients can only use the prosthetic with the help of a crew of laboratory assistants. The brain signals are collected through a cable screwed into a port on their skull, then fed along wires to a bulky rack of signal processors. “Using this in the home setting is inconceivable or impractical when you are tethered to a bunch of electronics,” says Arto Nurmikko, the Brown professor of engineering who led the design and fabrication of the wireless system.

capabilities-hardware-projection

Unless you have been living in a tree house for the last twenty years you know digital security is a huge problem.  IT professionals and companies writing code will definitely continue working on how to make our digital world more secure.  That is a given.

exascale

We can forget Moor’s Law which refers to an observation made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965. He noticed that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since their invention.  Moore’s law predicts that this trend will continue into the foreseeable future. Although the pace has slowed, the number of transistors per square inch has since doubled approximately every 18 months. This is used as the current definition of Moore’s law.  We are well beyond that with processing speed literally progressing at “warp six”.

non-volitile-memory

If you are an old guy like me, you can remember when computer memory costs an arm and a leg.  Take a look at the JPEG below and you get an idea as to how memory costs has decreased over the years.

hard-drive-cost-per-gbyte

As you can see, costs have dropped remarkably over the years.

photonics

texts-for-photonoics

power-conservative-multicores

text-for-power-conservative-multicores

CONCLUSION:

If you combine the above predictions with 1.) Big Data, 2.) Internet of Things (IoT), 3.) Wearable Technology, 4.) Manufacturing 4.0, 5.) Biometrics, and other fast-moving technologies you have a world in which “only the adventurous thrive”.  If you do not like change, I recommend you enroll in a monastery.  You will not survive gracefully without technology on the rampage. Just a thought.


Forbes Magazine recently published what they consider to be the top ten (10) trends in technology.  It’s a very interesting list and I could not argue with any item. The writer of the Forbes article is David W. Cearley.  Mr. Cearley is the vice president and Gartner Fellow at Gartner.  He specializes in analyzing emerging and strategic business and technology trends and explores how these trends shape the way individuals and companies derive value from technology.   Let’s take a quick look.

  • DEVICE MESH—This trend takes us far beyond our desktop PC, Tablet or even our cell phone.  The trend encompasses the full range of endpoints with which humans might interact. In other words, just about anything you interact with could possibly be linked to the internet for instant access.  This could mean individual devices interacting with each other in a fashion desired by user programming.  Machine to machine, M2M.
  • AMBIENT USER EXPERIENCE–All of our digital interactions can become synchronized into a continuous and ambient digital experience that preserves our experience across traditional boundaries of devices, time and space. The experience blends physical, virtual and electronic environments, and uses real-time contextual information as the ambient environment changes or as the user moves from one place to another.
  • 3-D PRINTING MATERIALS—If you are not familiar with “additive manufacturing” you are really missing a fabulous technology. Right now, 3-D Printing is somewhat in its infancy but progress is not just weekly or monthly but daily.  The range of materials that can be used for the printing process improves in a remarkable manner. You really need to look into this.
  • INFORMATION OF EVERYTHING— Everything surrounding us in the digital mesh is producing, using and communicating with virtually unmeasurable amounts of information. Organizations must learn how to identify what information provides strategic value, how to access data from different sources, and explore how algorithms leverage Information of Everything to fuel new business designs. I’m sure by now you have heard of “big data”.  Information of everything will provide mountains of data that must be sifted through so usable “stuff” results.  This will continue to be an ever-increasing task for programmers.
  • ADVANCED MACHINE LEARNING– Rise of the Machines.  Machines talking to each other and learning from each other.  (Maybe a little more frightening that it should be.) Advanced machine learning gives rise to a spectrum of smart machine implementations — including robots, autonomous vehicles, virtual personal assistants (VPAs) and smart advisors — that act in an autonomous (or at least semiautonomous) manner. This feeds into the ambient user experience in which an autonomous agent becomes the main user interface. Instead of interacting with menus, forms and buttons on a smartphone, the user speaks to an app, which is really an intelligent agent.
  • ADAPTIVE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE— The complexities of digital business and the algorithmic economy, combined with an emerging “hacker industry,” significantly increase the threat surface for an organization. IT leaders must focus on detecting and responding to threats, as well as more traditional blocking and other measures to prevent attacks. I don’t know if you have ever had your identity stolen but it is NOT fun.  Corrections are definitely time-consuming.
  • ADVANCED SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE–The digital mesh and smart machines require intense computing architecture demands to make them viable for organizations. They’ll get this added boost from ultra-efficient-neuromorphic architectures. Systems built on graphics processing units (GPUs) and field-programmable gate-arrays (FPGAs) will function more like human brains that are particularly suited to be applied to deep learning and other pattern-matching algorithms that smart machines use. FPGA-based architecture will allow distribution with less power into the tiniest Internet of Things (IoT) endpoints, such as homes, cars, wristwatches and even human beings.
  • Mesh App and Service ArchitectureThe mesh app and service architecture are what enable delivery of apps and services to the flexible and dynamic environment of the digital mesh. This architecture will serve users’ requirements as they vary over time. It brings together the many information sources, devices, apps, services and microservices into a flexible architecture in which apps extend across multiple endpoint devices and can coordinate with one another to produce a continuous digital experience.
  • INTERNET OF THINGS (IoT) and ARCHITECTURE PLATFORMS– IoT platforms exist behind the mesh app and service architecture. The technologies and standards in the IoT platform form a base set of capabilities for communicating, controlling, managing and securing endpoints in the IoT. The platforms aggregate data from endpoints behind the scenes from an architectural and a technology standpoint to make the IoT a reality.
  • Autonomous Agents and ThingsAdvanced machine learning gives rise to a spectrum of smart machine implementations — including robots, autonomous vehicles, virtual personal assistants (VPAs) and smart advisors — that act in an autonomous (or at least semiautonomous) manner. This feeds into the ambient user experience in which an autonomous agent becomes the main user interface. Instead of interacting with menus, forms and buttons on a smartphone, the user speaks to an app, which is really an intelligent agent.

CONCLUSIONS:  You have certainly noticed by now that ALL of the trends, with the exception of 3-D Printing are rooted in Internet access and Internet protocols.  We are headed towards a totally connected world in which our every move is traceable.  Traceable unless we choose to fly under the radar.


One of the items on my bucket list has been to attend the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.  (I probably need to put a rush on this one because the clock is ticking.)  For 50 years, CES has been the launching pad for innovation and new technology.  Much of this technology has changed the world. Held in Las Vegas every year, it is the world’s gathering place for all who thrive on the business of consumer technologies and where next-generation innovations are introduced to the commercial marketplace.   The International Consumer Electronics Show (International CES) showcases more than 3,800 exhibiting companies, including manufacturers, developers and suppliers of consumer technology hardware, content, technology delivery systems and more; a conference program with more than three hundred (300) conference sessions and more than one-hundred and sixty-five thousand attendees from one hundred1 (50) countries.  Because it is owned and produced by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA)™ — formerly the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)® — the technology trade association representing the $287 billion U.S. consumer technology industry, and it attracts the world’s business leaders and pioneering thinkers to a forum where the industry’s most relevant issues are addressed.  The range of products is immense as seen from the listing of product categories below.

PRODUCT CATEGORIES:

  • 3D Printing
  • Accessories
  • Augmented Reality
  • Audio
  • Communications Infrastructure
  • Computer Hardware/Software/Services
  • Content Creation & Distribution
  • Digital/Online Media
  • Digital Imaging/Photography
  • Drones
  • Electronic Gaming
  • Fitness and Sports
  • Health and Biotech
  • Internet Services
  • Personal Privacy & Cyber Security
  • Robotics
  • Sensors
  • Smart Home
  • Startups
  • Vehicle Technology
  • Video
  • Wearables
  • Wireless Devices & Services

If we look at world-changing revolution and evolution coming from CES over the years, we may see the following advances in technology, most of which now commercialized:

  • Videocassette Recorder (VCR), 1970
  • Laserdisc Player, 1974
  • Camcorder and Compact Disc Player, 1981
  • Digital Audio Technology, 1990
  • Compact Disc – Interactive, 1991
  • Digital Satellite System (DSS), 1994
  • Digital Versatile Disk (DVD), 1996
  • High Definition Television (HDTV), 1998
  • Hard-disc VCR (PVR), 1999
  • Satellite Radio, 2000
  • Microsoft Xbox and Plasma TV, 2001
  • Home Media Server, 2002
  • Blu-Ray DVD and HDTV PVR, 2003
  • HD Radio, 2004
  • IP TV, 2005
  • Convergence of content and technology, 2007
  • OLED TV, 2008
  • 3D HDTV, 2009
  • Tablets, Netbooks and Android Devices, 2010
  • Connected TV, Smart Appliances, Android Honeycomb, Ford’s Electric Focus, Motorola Atrix, Microsoft Avatar Kinect, 2011
  • Ultrabooks, 3D OLED, Android 4.0 Tablets, 2012
  • Ultra HDTV, Flexible OLED, Driverless Car Technology, 2013
  • 3D Printers, Sensor Technology, Curved UHD, Wearable Technologies, 2014
  • 4K UHD, Virtual Reality, Unmanned Systems, 2015

Why don’t we do this, let’s now take a very brief look at several exhibits to get a feel for the products.  Here we go.

Augmented Reality (AR):

Through specially designed hardware and software full of cameras, sensors, algorithms and more, your perception of reality can be instantly altered in context with your environment. Applications include sports scores showing on TV during a match, the path of trajectory overlaying an image, gaming, construction plans and more.  VR (virtual reality) equipment is becoming extremely popular, not only with consumers, but with the Department of Defense, Department of Motor Vehicles, and companies venturing out to technology for training purposes.

augmented-reality

Cyber Security:

The Cyber & Personal Security Marketplace will feature innovations ranging from smart wallets and safe payment apps to secure messaging and private Internet access.  If you have never been hacked, you are one in a million.  I really don’t think there are many people who have remained unaffected by digital fraud.  One entire section of the CES is devoted to cyber security.

cyber-security

E-Commerce:

Enterprise solutions are integral for business. From analytics, consulting, integration and cyber security to e-commerce and mobile payment, the options are ever-evolving.  As you well know, each year the number of online shoppers increases and will eventually outpace the number of shoppers visiting “brick-and-motor stores.  Some feel this may see the demise of shopping centers altogether.

e-commerce

Self-Driving Autonomous Automobiles:

Some say if you are five years old or under you may never need a driver’s license.  I personally think this is a little far-fetched but who knows.  Self-driving automobiles are featured prominently at the CES.

self-driving-automobiles

Virtual Reality (VR):

Whether it will be the launch of the next wave of immersive multimedia for virtual reality systems and environments or gaming hardware, software and accessories designed for mobile, PCs or consoles, these exhibitors are sure to energize, empower and excite at CES 2017.

vr

i-Products:

From electronic plug-ins to fashionable cases, speakers, headphones and exciting new games and applications, the product Marketplace will feature the latest third-party accessories and software for your Apple iPod®, iPhone® and iPad® devices.

i-products

3-D Printing:

Most 3D printers are used for building prototypes for the medical, aerospace, engineering and automotive industries. But with the advancement of the digital technology supporting it, these machines are moving toward more compact units with affordable price points for today’s consumer.

30-d-printing

Robotic Systems:

The Robotics Marketplace will showcase intelligent, autonomous machines that are changing the way we live at work, at school, at the doctor’s office and at home.

robotics

Healthcare and Wellness:

Digital health continues to grow at an astonishing pace, with innovative solutions for diagnosing, monitoring and treating illnesses, to advancements in health care delivery and smarter lifestyles.

health-and-wellness

Sports Technology:

In a world where an athlete’s success hinges on milliseconds or millimeters, high-performance improvement and feedback are critical.

sports-technology

CONCLUSIONS:

I think it’s amazing and to our credit as a country that CES exists and presents, on an annual basis, designs and visions from the best and brightest.  A great show-place for ideas the world over from established companies and companies who wish to make their mark on technology.  Can’t wait to go—maybe next year.  As always, I welcome your comments.


I want us to consider a “what-if” scenario.  You are thirty-two years old, out of school, and have finally landed a job you really enjoy AND you are actually making money at that job. You have your expenses covered with “traveling money” left over for a little fun.  You recently discovered the possibility that Social Security (SS), when you are ready to retire, will be greatly reduced if not completely eliminated. You MUST start saving for retirement and consider SS to be the icing on the cake if available at all.  QUESTION: Where do you start?  As you investigate the stock markets you find stocks seem to be the best possibility for future income.  Stocks, bonds, “T” bills, etc. all are possibilities but stocks are at the top of the list.

People pay plenty of money for consulting giants to help them figure out which technology trends are fads and which will stick. You could go that route, or get the same thing from the McKinsey Global Institute’s in-house think-tank for the cost of a new book. No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends, was written by McKinsey directors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel, and offers insight into which developments will have the greatest impact on the business world in coming decades. If you chose stocks, you definitely want to look at technology sectors AND consider companies contributing products to those sectors.  The following list from that book may help.  Let’s take a look.

Below, we’re recapping their list of the “Disruptive Dozen”—the technologies the group believes have the greatest potential to remake today’s business landscape.

Batteries

energy-storage

The book’s authors predict that the price of lithium-ion battery packs could fall by a third in the next 10 years, which will have a big impact on not only electric cars, but renewable energy storage. There will be major repercussions for the transportation, power generation, and the oil and gas industries as batteries grow cheaper and more efficient.  Battery technology will remain with us and will contribute to ever-increasing product offerings as time goes by.  Companies supplying this market sector will only increase in importance.

Genomics

genomics

As super computers make the enormously complicated process of genetic analysis much simpler, the authors foresee a world in which “genomic-based diagnoses and treatments will extend patients’ lives by between six months and two years in 2025.” Sequencing systems could eventually become so commonplace that doctors will have them on their desktops.  This is a rapidly growing field and one that has and will save lives.

Material Science

advanced-materials

The ability to manipulate existing materials on a molecular level has already enabled advances in products like sunglasses, bike frames, and medical equipment. Scientists have greater control than ever over nanomaterials in a variety of substances, and their understanding is growing. Health concerns recently prompted Dunkin’ Donuts to remove nanomaterials from their food. But certain advanced nanomaterials show promise for improving health, and even treating cancer. Coming soon: materials that are self-healing, self-cleaning, and that remember their original shape even if they’re bent.

Self-Driving or Autonomous Automobiles

self-driving-vehicles

Autonomous cars are coming, and fast. By 2025, the “driverless revolution” could already be “well underway,” the authors write. All the more so if laws and regulations in the U.S. can adapt to keep up. Case in point: Some BMW cars already park themselves. You will not catch me in a self-driving automobile unless the FED and the auto maker can assure me they are safe.  Continuous effort is being expended to do just that.  These driverless automobiles are coming and we all may just as well get used to it.

Alternate Energy Solutions

reneuable-energy

Wind and solar have never really been competitive with fossil fuels, but McKinsey predicts that status quo will change thanks to technology that enables wider use and better energy storage. In the last decade, the cost of solar energy has already fallen by a factor of 10, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the sun could surpass fossil fuels to become the world’s largest source of electricity by 2050.  I might include with wind and solar, methane recovery from landfills, biodiesel, compressed natural gas, and other environmentally friendly alternatives.

Robotic Systems

advanced-robotics

The robots are coming! “Sales of industrial robots grew by 170% in just two years between 2009 and 2011,” the authors write, adding that the industry’s annual revenues are expected to exceed $40 billion by 2020. As robots get cheaper, more dexterous, and safer to use, they’ll continue to grow as an appealing substitute for human labor in fields like manufacturing, maintenance, cleaning, and surgery.

3-D Printing

3-d-printing

Much-hyped additive manufacturing has yet to replace traditional manufacturing technologies, but that could change as systems get cheaper and smarter. “In the future, 3D printing could redefine the sale and distribution of physical goods,” the authors say. Think buying an electric blueprint of a shoe, then going home and printing it out. The book notes that “the manufacturing process will ‘democratize’ as consumers and entrepreneurs start to print their own products.”

Mobile Devices

mobile-internet

The explosion of mobile apps has dramatically changed our personal experiences (goodbye hookup bars, hello Tinder), as well as our professional lives. More than two thirds of people on earth have access to a mobile phone, and another two or three billion people are likely to gain access over the coming decade. The result: internet-related expenditures outpace even agriculture and energy, and will only continue to grow.

Artificial Intelligence

automation-of-knowledge

It’s not just manufacturing jobs that will be largely replaced by robots and 3D printers. Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel report that by 2025, computers could do the work of 140 million knowledge workers. If Watson can win at “Jeopardy!” there’s nothing stopping computers from excelling at other knowledge work, ranging from legal discovery to sports coverage.

 

The Internet of Things (IoT)

iot

Right now, 99% of physical objects are unconnected to the “internet of things.” It won’t last. Going forward, more products and tools will be controlled via the internet, the McKinsey directors say, and all kinds of data will be generated as a result. Expect sensors to collect information on the health of machinery, the structural integrity of bridges, and even the temperatures in ovens.

Cloud Technology

cloud-technology

The growth of cloud technology will change just how much small businesses and startups can accomplish. Small companies will get “IT capabilities and back-office services that were previously available only to larger firms—and cheaply, too,” the authors write. “Indeed, large companies in almost every field are vulnerable, as start-ups become better equipped, more competitive, and able to reach customers and users everywhere.”

Oil Production

advanced-oil-technology

The International Energy Agency predicts the U.S. will be the world’s largest producer of oil by 2020, thanks to advances in fracking and other technologies, which improved to the point where removing oil from hard-to-reach spots finally made economic sense. McKinsey directors expect increasing ease of fuel extraction to further shift global markets.  This was a real surprise to me but our country has abundant oil supplies and we are already fairly self-sufficient.

Big Data

big-data

There is an ever-increasing accumulation of data from all sources.  At no time in our global history has there been a greater thirst for information.  We count and measure everything now days with the recent election being one example of that very fact.  Those who can control and manage big data are definitely ahead of the game.

CONCLUSION:  It’s a brave new world and a world that accommodates educated individuals.  STAY IN SCHOOL.  Get ready for what’s coming.  The world as we know it will continue to change with greater opportunities as time advances.  Be there.  Also, I would recommend investing in those technology sectors that feed the changes.  I personally don’t think a young investor will go wrong.

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