UNTIL THE END OF TIME

Sounds like a cheesy romance novel, right?   Well, not exactly.  It is a fabulous book by Dr. Brian Greene.   My grandfather told me to always put your money on the jockey and not the race horse.  I’ve come to believe he is absolutely correct.  With that in mind, here is a very brief biographical sketch of the author Dr. Brian Greene.

BIOGRAPHY:

Brian Greene is a professor of physics and mathematics at Columbia University, where he also serves as the director of Columbia’s Center for Theoretical Physics. Dr. Greene is recognized for a number of groundbreaking discoveries in his field of superstring theory, including the co-discovery of mirror symmetry and the discovery of spatial topology change. His books—The Elegant Universe, The Fabric of the Cosmos, The Hidden Reality, and Until the End of Time: Mind, Matter, and Our Search for Meaning in an Evolving Universe.  These six (6) books have collectively spent over sixty-seven (67) weeks on The New York Times bestseller list, and were the basis of two award-winning NOVA mini-series, which he hosted. In 2008, Greene co-founded the World Science Festival, where he serves as Chairman of the Board. His latest book, Until the End of Time: Mind, Matter, and Our Search for Meaning in an Evolving Universe, was released in 2020. 

THE BOOK:

There are two main themes running through his book. The first is natural selection, the endless inventive process of evolution that keeps molding organisms into more and more complex arrangements and co-dependencies. He considers this to be an ongoing process that will continue until there is an end of time.  The second is what Greene calls the “entropic-two step.” This refers to the physical property known as entropy. In thermodynamics it denotes the amount of heat — wasted energy — inevitably produced by a steam engine, for example as it goes through its cycle of expansion and contraction. It’s the reason you can’t build a perpetual motion machine. In modern physics it’s a measure of disorder and information. Entropy is a big concept in information theory and black holes, as well as in biology.   

Dr. Greene uses the steam engine as an example as to how we operate on a daily basis.  He feels that we are all small steam engines and everything we accomplish has a thermodynamic cost. That is why your exhaust pipe gets too hot to touch, or why your desk tends to get more cluttered by the end of the day.  I feel the steam engine is a wonderful example which is often used in the first half of the book. 

In the end, Greene says, entropy will get us all, and everything else in the universe will eventually tear down what evolution has built. “The entropic two-step and the evolutionary forces of selection enrich the pathway from order to disorder with prodigious structure, but whether stars or black holes, planets or people, molecules or atoms, things ultimately fall apart,” he writes.

Dr.  Greene describes how this will work by inviting us to climb an allegorical Empire State Building; and on each floor the universe, we age ten (10) times. If the first floor is year ten (10), we now are just above the ten (10^th) billion-year point in our world’s history.  By the time we get to the eleventh (11^th) floor the sun will be gone and with it probably any life on Earth.  As we climb higher, we are exposed to expanses of time that make the current age of the universe to appear less than the blink of an eye.  Now, his example uses the universe as being thirteen-point eight (13.8) billion years old.  This is measured from the “Big Bang”.  He does accept the Big Bang as being a credible event that starts every thing in motion.  

Eventually the Milky Way galaxy will fall into a black hole. On about the thirty-eighth (38^th) floor of the future, when the universe is one hundred (100) trillion trillion trillion years old, protons, the building blocks of atoms, will dissolve out from under us, leaving space populated by a thin haze of lightweight electrons and a spittle of radiation.  I know this seems to be a depressing thought but one hundred trillion trillion years is obviously well past any life time we might consider.  We still have time.

It definitely helps to have some prior knowledge of Thermodynamics, Heat Transfer and Entropy when you are reading this book because his entire thesis is based upon principals found with these three subjects.  As indicated earlier, throughout the book, he used very clever examples to bring home specific points; i.e., steam engines and the Empire State Building.  One very obvious thing from the first page to the last page is he uses vocabulary well above normal everyday language.  The reason I say this is as follows:

I retired from General Electric in 2005.  As a Senior Development Engineer, we were required to write our own Use and Care Manuals and Installation Instructions.  We were told to write these documents at the fifth (5^th) grade level and to use pictures whenever we could. We were told this was the level of understanding for the general public and those individuals who might be installing the products we were selling.  I can tell you right now, Dr. Greene’s book is far above the fifth-grade level.  It is definitely university level.  As I mentioned, it’s not a romance novel.

REVIEWS:

I thought the book was absolutely excellent and very thought-provoking, but some of the reviews were not that kind.  Let’s take a look.

CONCLUSIONS:

I thought it was an excellent book although it took time to read. Another thing very interesting about Dr. Greene’s presentation:  there are copious notes throughout the book, a bibliography and an index.  Each topic is noted where needed with the specific note explaining the reference in great detail.  The bibliography indicates all of the authors referenced in the text.  The index, of course, is in alphabetical order and denotes subject and page number for review and referral.   Excellent book. 

JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT IT WAS SAFE TO GO BACK INTO THE WATER

It’s plainly obvious to everyone that we are still dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.  The numbers are not getting any better with twenty-four point seven (24.7M) million cases and four hundred and ten thousand (410,000) deaths thus far.  My wife and I have been very fortunate to have gotten first and second shots of the Pfizer vaccine this month.  The second shot was yesterday, 21 January.  By the way, there is nothing to fear from the second shot.  No after-effects at all for us. Only a slightly sore arm.  I recommend you not be afraid of getting vaccinated as soon as possible.

The heading of this post does not actually concern the pandemic but safety threats faced on a daily basis.  The research company Freedonia says the market for smart home security locks and access controls is growing at an average of twenty-four percent (24%) each year and will reach two billion USD ($2B USD) in 2025.  Our world-wide population is faced not only with the COVID-19 pandemic but climate change, violent events in our communities (please see Portland, Oregon), and global political events.  Not only is the U.S. population looking at smart home security but also looking at doomsday bunkers.  That’s correct, doomsday bunkers.  Mostly underground bunkers. 

These underground structures come in many different and distinct configurations, including single-family pods within a community, single-family pods you order and install on your own property, very elaborate custom underground mansions for the very uber-wealthy, group bunkers for communities of ordinary citizens, group bunkers built by governments for a variety of disaster scenarios, and several other classifications. 

I recommend you go online to see what’s available.  Once you do you will be super-depressed.  One website lists some of the potential global catastrophes, which seem more plausible than ever before, such as, 1.) Nuclear war, 2.) Terrorist nuclear strikes, 3.) An electro-magnetic pulse, which creates a domino-effect over the globe, 4.) Bioterrorism using chemical weapons, 5.) “Conventional” terrorist attacks, 6.) Economic collapse, 7.) Widespread civil unrest, 8.) Super-volcanos, 9.) Earthquakes, 10.) Tsunamis, 11.) Rapid shift in the earth’s poles, 12.) Asteroids, 13.) Solar Flares, 14.) Alien invasions.  (I told you, you would be depressed.)

 One mathematical calculation says there is a fifty percent (50%) possibility that humanity will be extinct in less than eight hundred (800) years. Then again, who’s counting?  I quite frankly, feel the odds of University of Tennessee football winning the SEC next year are much less so what’s the big deal? 

One very interesting thing about these underground bunkers is that some of the builders have designs detailing clean-energy and high-tech systems including necessary communication with the outside world, or what’s left of it.  Temperature: always around seventy-two (72) degrees: humidity, a comfortable fifty-five percent (55%), ventilation: 18000 cfm, etc. Please note this is filtered air.  You get the picture.

COSTS:

OK, let’s discuss cost.  Generally, the costs start at thirty-five thousand ($35,000) USD. This is for a “group” facility that holds approximately eighty (80) people and is definitely NOT a long-term solution.  A 200-square-foot bunker costs $52,750 on average, for just the bunker itself.  Most bunkers of this size range from $37,000 to $65,500.  Smaller bunkers may only cost around $19,000 but you could easily spend upwards of eight ($8) million for a large “fully-furnished” underground shelter.   While these prices are for kits that typically include water and air filtration, they often won’t cover delivery fees nor installation. Shipping alone can cost around $10,000. Excavating the land and installing the bunker could cost anywhere from $20,000 to $25,000. Your most affordable option for installation might be putting in a bunker during construction on a new house.   More and more people are doing this.  We are seeing flight from big cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, etc. to the suburbs.  People, who can work online and/or remotely, are building houses to get away from urban sprawl and congestion AND they are factoring into the building cost underground bunkers.  Just in case.   

SKYBORG

Some of the information for this post came from the publication “Military & Aerospace Electronics”. 

Someone once said, “If it looks like it will fly, it probably will”.  This is an example of the “duck test”.  If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.

With that in mind, take a look at the digital picture below and tell me—does it look like it will fly?

The US Air Force is flying at supersonic speeds towards an AI-enabled fleet. Under project Skyborg’s direction, future fighter jets won’t be supported by a wingman, but by an unmanned combat aerial vehicle.  More and more the United States Air Force and other branches of our Department of Defense are moving towards unmanned aircraft.  Skyborg is the latest example of that effort.   Skyborg is incorporating AI, artificial intelligence, into the control system.   The United States Air Force is asking nine (9) companies to provide mature enabling technologies to prototype a low-cost unmanned combat aircraft.  The project name is, as mentioned, called Skyborg.  The final design not only will have artificial intelligence but allow for modular payloads.  This feature will allow for a wide variety of fighter and ground-attack capabilities. 

Officials of the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, in Ohio have announced that the nine companies will share as much as four hundred million ($400M) to develop technologies for a prototype of the Skyborg Autonomous Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV).

The nine (9) companies involved with the program are:

• AeroVironment Inc. in Simi Valley, California
• BAE Systems Controls & Avionics Solutions in Endicott, N.Y.
• Blue Force Technologies in Morrisville, N.C.
• Fregata Systems LLC in St. Louis
• Lockheed Martin Corporation Aeronautics in Fort Worth, Texas
• Wichita State University in Wichita, Kansas
• NexGen Aeronautics in Torrance, California
• Sierra Technical Services, Inc. in Tehachapi, California.
• Autonodyne LLC in Boston, Massachusetts

Finger four has been the dominant fighter aircraft formation since the 1930s. The world’s most advanced fighter jet, the Lockheed Martin F-35, costs around one hundred million ($100m) per jet.  Four of these in formation means almost half a billion dollars of hardware in the air (not including the per hour cost of flying them). Losing just one fighter would be catastrophic for the US Air Force’s budget.

The Skyborg project will make efforts to address this cost risk by replacing much of these expensive fighter jets with more affordable unmanned combat aerial vehicles acting as unmanned wingmen.

Skyborg program manager Ben Tran explained the significance of the program: “There is heavy investment by our near-peer adversaries in artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy in general. We know that when you couple autonomy and AI with systems like low-cost attractables, that can increase capability significantly and be a force multiplier for our air force. The 2023 goal line is our attempt at bringing something to bear in a relatively quick time frame to show that we can bring that kind of capability to the fight.”

These contracts will provide for Skyborg prototyping, experimentation, and autonomy development to deliver missionized prototypes in support of operational experimentation.  Once fielded, the Skyborg unmanned combat aircraft will enable warfighters to adjust the plane’s payload and autonomy modularity to support an array of missions.  Researchers are interested only in technologies that quickly move to operational use.

Skyborg will have an open AI software architecture and toolkits that enable timely modifications and upgrades of complex autonomous behaviors: have a modular open-systems mission hardware, and meet military certifications and acquisition requirements.

Researchers are interested in the ability to autonomously to avoid other aircraft, terrain, obstacles, and hazardous weather; conduct autonomous takeoffs and returns; have separate sensor payloads and flight computers to allow for modular adjustments and adaptability; and have mission-planning software that integrates with next-generation Air Force mission planning tools that emphasize modularity and openness.

Incorporating AI into the software package is a first for the Air Force.  This is a huge step in the right direction.

LOGISTICS

Logistics refers to the overall process of managing how resources are acquired, stored, and transported to their final destination.  We sometimes think logistics is just about transportation but in reality, logistical operations begin with a customer placing an order to a supplier or a vendor. Logistics management involves identifying prospective fabricators, distributors and suppliers then determining their effectiveness and accessibility. Logistics managers are referred to as logisticians.  The job of a logistician is far more complex than being an “order-taker” or a salesperson.  There has to be a proper or right “fit” between the client and the company providing the logistics management. 

The term “Logistics” was initially a military-based term used in reference to how military personnel obtained, stored, and moved equipment and supplies. Logistics is now used widely in the business sector, particularly by companies in the manufacturing sectors, to refer to how resources are handled and moved along the supply chain.  A supply chain is a network between a company and its suppliers to produce and distribute a specific product to the final buyer. This network includes different activities, people, entities, information, and resources. The supply chain also represents the steps it takes to get the product or service from its original state to the customer.  A pictorial definition may be seen as follows:

An integral part of logistics is the supply chain, which is critical to the process. 

A supply chain involves a series of steps. These very basic steps include: 1.) moving and transforming raw materials into finished products, 2.)  transporting those products, and 3.)  distributing them to the end-user. The entities involved in the supply chain include fabricators, assemblers, component vendors, warehouses, transportation companies, distribution centers, and retailers.  In the Air Force, we would call this the “womb-to-tomb” process because it is all-encompassing.  Nuts-to soup.

Companies develop supply chains to reduce their costs and remain competitive in the business landscape.  Remaining competitive requires significant management and in today’s world, an application of technology.  In a supply chain, a distribution network is an interconnected group of storage facilities and transportation systems that receive inventories of goods and deliver them to customers. Warehousing can be an intermediate point necessary to get products from the manufacturer to the end customer, either directly or through a retail network. A fast and reliable distribution network is essential in today’s instant gratification society of consumers.

Supply chain management is a very important part of the business process. There are many different links in this chain that require skill and expertise. When supply chain management is effective, it can lower a company’s overall costs and boost profitability. If one link breaks down, it can affect the rest of the chain and can be costly.  A pictorial of supply chain management may be seen by Figure 2 below.

The supply chain starts with Sales and product development. If we go clockwise in Figure 2 below, we see the procurement of components and raw materials from various suppliers and vendors.  Fabrication and manufacturing come next.  Generally, the finished product is shipped to a warehouse facility from which it is then shipped to the end user or customer when orders are received.  This completes the logistics cycle.

The supply chain starts with Sales and product development. If we go clockwise in Figure 2 we see the procurement of components and raw materials from various suppliers and vendors.  Fabrication and manufacturing come next.  Generally, the finished product is shipped to a warehouse facility rom which it is then shipped to the end user or customer when orders are received.  This completes the logistics cycle.

3PL or THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS:

Many companies providing logistics services use the 3PL or third-party logistics, method for distribution. 3PL is a service that allows a company to outsource operational logistics from warehousing, all the way through to delivery, and ultimately enables focus on other parts of the business.   Third-party logistics companies provide any number of services having to do with the logistics to the supply chain. This includes transportation, warehousing, picking and packing, inventory forecasting, order fulfillment, packaging, tracking shipments, customs management, and freight forwarding.

Using a 3PL provider can offer significant advantages. As mentioned earlier, the greatest advantage is handing over these logistics functions so you and your company can focus on other aspects of the business such as sales, marketing and product development. Outsourcing 3PL leaves you with more time and resources. Here are a few of the possible advantages:

• Cost reduction. 3PLs have more leverage with freight companies than individual shippers do. Working with carriers on behalf of multiple customers, 3PLs can negotiate pricing based on volume and order frequency. Using a 3PL to manage all or part of your supply chain can give you the freedom to invest in other key areas to grow and develop your business.
• Scale up or down as needed: Most businesses experience fluctuations in demand throughout the year. Using a 3PL allows individuals to manage peaks and valleys more effectively without having to commit to capital when you don’t need to. As sales increase or decrease, personnel many times must be hired or laid off.   A 3PL can alleviate this hiring and laying-off, consequently improve moral and the cost stability of the company.  In today’s world, cash flow is critical.  A 3PL can mitigate fluctuations in cash flow. 
• Provide a better customer experience: Customers expect next-day or same-day shipping as standard. Using a third-party logistics provider allows a company to offer fast shipping no matter where the order is being sent, thanks to having access to the 3PL’s wide distribution network.  As we will see later, timely delivery is absolutely critical in maintaining customer satisfaction and retaining that customer for future sales. 
• Test new markets: With a domestic or international 3PL, you have the flexibility to test the waters in new markets without having commitment to any major investments like warehousing space or staff.  This is especially favorable when considering international business.
• Mitigate risk: Shipping delays can and do happen for a number of reasons. When unforeseen circumstances pop up, a 3PL is responsible for making alternate arrangements to fulfil your orders as quickly as possible. You’ll also be protected in the event of damage or loss of goods.  Please keep in mind that along with designating a 3PL you will have to consider insurance coverage for the product(s) to be shipped.  This is the cost of doing business. The 3PL service may require this to be the case.
• Gain instant expertise and knowledge in the field.  If you’re just starting out, who better to take care of your logistics than a company specializing in fulling all of the requirement? Fulfillment, warehousing and shipping come with major challenges of their own, so handing it off to the experts can really make a difference in the way you function – and it leaves you to focus on increasing your overall value to your customers.  Imagine starting from ground-zero and the number of people you would have to hire to duplicate the services of a qualified 3PL?
• Get a handle on international logistics. If you’re selling internationally, 3PLs can take care of documentation, customs, duties and other issues that come up at the borders that can delay your shipments and result in high costs if not done thoroughly. Plus, you save time trying to work out complicated rules pertaining to different countries.  For one of my clients, I handle all of the paperwork and red-tape for shipments into Mexico.  Paperwork and the necessary declarations associated with NAFTA is a real pain—necessary but a real pain. 
• Generate cost savings. When it comes to warehousing, not having to maintain your own space and staff can be a huge cost-saving measure. Companies that provide good inventory control and forecasting can help optimize inventory levels and save money on inventory holding costs.  Tracking inventory is an integral part of services provided by a warehousing 3PL.

I would now like to give you some idea as to how 3PL factors into last year’s gift-giving.  2020 saw tremendous order quantities online due to COVID-19 and other associated problems.   The following data is from “Material Handling Management”, December 2020 issue. The data is provided by Voxware, a company providing Cloud-based analytics to supply-chain institutions for the material handling industry.  The findings indicate that in addition to increased e-commerce and shipping pressures, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, new patterns of behavior form holiday shoppers severely strained operations and the ability to meet fulfillment expectations.

• Shipping directly to gift recipients meant more packages sent per order. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of respondents in the Voxware survey had more gifts shipped directly to recipients than in previous years.  My wife and I have family in Dallas, Texas so all of their presents were shipped directly to their address.  In normal times, we probably would have traveled to Dallas to be with them.  COVID made that impossible last year.
• Smaller items must be picked and packaged.  I know that Amazon has two on-floor personnel classifications: pickers and packers.   The names identify their function.   Seventy-eight percent (78%) of respondents purchased stocking stuffers online rather that purchasing them in stores.  This is a huge increase relative to previous years.
• COVID-related supply chain slowdowns were prevalent in 2020.  Thirteen percent (13%) of respondents claim that up to fifty percent (50%) of the items they purchased online arrived later than the promised delivery date.  I think one of the reasons being promised delivery dates made knowing they could not be kept. 
• Consumers are abandoning retailers with late delivery.  Thirty percent (30%) of consumers are much less likely to purchase from an online retailer who has failed to deliver an item on-time in the past, up from twenty-three percent (23%) in 2018.

A 3PL isn’t for every business. Here are a few drawbacks for you to consider. A company must answer the question: would the use of a 3PL impact your business and how?

• Lesser control over the delivery process. With a third-party taking care of your shipping, there can be challenges when there are delays or problems in shipping a customer’s order. The customer will be looking at you for the resolution, not your 3PL.  The customer will probably blame any shipping damage on the supplier and not the 3PL.  This is customarily the way it works. 
• Larger upfront investment. On the flip side of the cost issue, while hiring a 3PL can pay for itself in the long run, the investment can still be a large cost in the beginning.  If you don’t need a big warehouse or don’t have many orders, the cost of a 3PL can be prohibitive.
• More distance between you and your product. The 3PL you choose may position you far away from your products, which would be an inconvenience if you run into quality control issues, or need to physically inspect your stock for any reason.  What happen in the unlikely event there is a recall on the product purchased and shipped?  The recall efforts will be handled by the company supplying the product and not the 3PL.

A digital picture representing a 3PL entity is as follows:

I want now to give you two real-world examples of logistics.  Here we go.

REAL-WORLD EXAMPLES of LOGISTICS IN ACTION:

• With regret, every country on Earth is involved with the logistics of shipping the COVID-19 vaccines to healthcare providers so populations may be vaccinated.  In the United States, the federal government is overseeing a centralized system to order, distribute, and track COVID-19 vaccines. All vaccines will be ordered through CDC (Center for Disease Control). Operation Warp Speed is a partnership among components of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Department of Defense to help develop, make, and distribute millions of vaccine doses for COVID-19 as quickly as possible while ensuring that the vaccines are safe and that they work.  This is a huge logistical operation with very specific guidelines for the shippers.  Both the Pfizer and Modena vaccines are stored at cryogenic temperatures so this requires cryogenic units for transportation and storage at various healthcare locations.

• FedEx, UPS, USPS, Walmart, Amazon, Alibaba, Target and hundreds of business entities are involved with shipping merchandise to customers.  This requires strategic planning, logistical management, transportation and warehouse storage.   Think of what is required when ordering a component from a supplier in China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, France, Spain, etc.  Orders from these countries and many others are a daily occurrence and handled in a judicious manner due to logistics management. As we all know, tracking those orders is an integral part of the process.   In many cases, it is critical to have a component on time so assembly lines and production processes will not be interrupted. In many cases, manufacturers penalize suppliers when orders are not received on time.  Surface freight generally takes four (4) to five (5) weeks when shipped by sea.  Air freight is generally two to three days depending upon the country of location.
• In surveys conducted by logistics sources, five of the very best companies involved with logistics are: 1.) Coca-Cola, 2.) Colgate Company, 3.) 7-Eleven, 4.) ZARA, and 5.) Amazon.  These companies seem to do it correctly most, if not all, of the time.  They have their processes detailed to the minute so delivery and tracking is accurate and the end-user knows when products will arrive.

We will stop there but the profession of Logistics is a fascinating one and one in which well over a million people make a living.