RETURN OF X-PLANES

April 22, 2017


In the April 2017 issue of “Machine Design” a fascinating article entitled “NASA’S Green Thumb for Green Aviation” was presented. This article was written by Carlos M. Gonzales and encouraged me to explore, at least through NASA’s web site, the status of their “X-Plane” program.  Aviation is definitely a growth industry. Millions upon millions of individuals travel each year for business, recreation, and tourism.  There is no doubt that aviation is the “Greyhound Bus” for the twenty-first century.

The aviation system is the high-speed transportation backbone of the United States and global economies. Global aviation is forecast to grow from today’s three point five (3.5) billion passenger trips per year to seven (7) billion passenger trips by the mid- 2030s, and to eleven (11) billion passenger trips by mid-century. Such growth brings with it the direct economic potential of trillions of dollars in the fields of manufacturing, operations and maintenance, and the high-quality jobs they support.

At the same time, international competition for leadership of this critical industry is growing, as more nations invest in developing their own aviation technology and industrial capabilities. Such massive growth also creates substantial operational and environmental challenges. For example, by mid-century the aviation industry will need to build and fly enough new aircraft to accommodate more than three times as many passenger trips while at the same time reducing total emissions by half from that new hardware. Moreover, large reductions in emissions and aircraft noise levels will be needed, if not mandated. To meet those demands, revolutionary levels of aircraft performance improvements – well beyond today’s technology – must be achieved. In terms of air traffic control and the National Airspace System, maintaining safe and efficient operations is a continuing and growing challenge as the system expands, and especially as new business and operational models – such as unmanned aerial systems – are introduced. Enabling aircraft (with pilots aboard or not) to fly optimized trajectories through high density airspace with real-time, systemwide safety assurance are among the most critical operational improvements that must be achieved.

In looking at global growth, we see the following:

These numbers would be very frightening without the aviation industry deciding to be pro-active relative to the sheer numbers of passenger miles anticipated over the next two decades.  That’s where NASA comes in.

NEW AVIATION HORIZONS:

In FY 2017, NASA plans to begin a major ten-year research effort to accelerate aviation energy efficiency, transform propulsion systems, and enable major improvements in air traffic mobility. The centerpiece of NASA’s ten-year acceleration for advanced technologies testing is called New Aviation Horizons, or NAH. It is an ambitious plan to build a series of five mostly large-scale experimental aircraft – X-planes – that will flight test new technologies, systems and novel aircraft and engine configurations. X-planes are a key piece of the “three-legged stool” that characterizes aviation research.

  • One leg represents computational capabilities – the high-speed super computers that can model the physics of air flowing over an object – be it a wing, a rudder or a full airplane.
  • A second leg represents experimental methods. This is where scientists put what is most often a scale model of an object or part of an object – be it a wing, a rudder or an airplane – in a wind tunnel to take measurements of air flowing over the object. These measurements help improve the computer model, and the computer model helps inform improvements to the airplane design, which can then be tested again in the wind tunnel.
  • The third leg of the stool is to actually fly the design. Whether it’s flying an X-plane or a full-scale prototype of a new aircraft, the data recorded in actual flight can be used to validate and improve the computational and experimental methods used to develop the design in the first place. This third leg makes it possible to lower the risk enough to completely trust what the numbers are saying.

With NAH, NASA will:

  • Demonstrate revolutionary advancements in aircraft and engine configurations that break the mold of traditional tube and wing designs.
  • Support accelerated delivery to the U.S. aviation community of advanced verified design and analysis tools that support new flight-validated concepts, systems and technologies.
  • Provide to appropriate organizations and agencies research results that inform their work to update domestic and international aviation standards and regulations.
  • Enable U.S. industry to put into service flight-proven transformative technology that will solve tomorrow’s global aviation challenges.
  • Inspire a new generation of aeronautical innovators and equip them to engineer future aviation systems. Of the five X-planes, NASA has determined that three subsonic aircraft will be enough to span the range of possible configurations necessary to demonstrate in flight the major enabling fuel, emissions and noise reducing technologies.

The graphic below indicates possible designs for aircraft of the future.  All of these craft are now on the drawing board with computational prototyping underway.

INDUSTRY:

U.S. industry plays an integral role in the NAH initiative, leading the design, development and building of all X-planes under contract to NASA. Industry will be a research partner in the ground test and analysis, as well as the flight tests of the X-planes. Industry also partners in the advancement of the physics-based design and analysis capabilities. Through the lead and partnering roles, U.S. industry will be fully capable of confidently taking the next steps in commercializing the transformational configurations and technologies. The Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company has already been awarded a preliminary design contract for the Quiet Supersonic Technology demonstrator. As indicated in a white paper published by the Aerospace Industries Association and the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, “The U.S. government must support robust, long-term Federal civil aeronautics research and technology initiatives funded at a level that will ensure U.S. leadership in aeronautics. Congress should support NASA’s ten-year Strategic Implementation Plan at least at the levels recommended in the fiscal year 2017 NASA Budget request to sustain a strong economy, maintain a skilled workforce, support national security, and drive a world-class educational system.”

UNIVERSITIES:

NASA has already launched the University Leadership Initiative, which provides U.S.-based universities the opportunity to take full independent leadership in defining and solving key technical challenges aligned with the NASA Aeronautics strategy. Solicitations and proposals are managed through the NASA Research Announcement process; the first round of awards will be made in Fall 2016. These awards could lead to new experiments that would fly onboard one or more X-planes. In addition, NASA is formulating new mechanisms for direct university and student participation in the X-plane design, development and flight test process. The objective is to ensure U.S. universities remain the leading global institutions for aviation research and education, and to ensure the next generation workforce has the vision and skills needed to lead aviation system transformation.

POSSIBLE CONFIGURATIONS:

As mentioned above, NASA, industry and universities have already begun looking at possible configurations.  The most promising on-going programs are given below.

As you can see, the designs are absolutely striking and “doable” relative to existing technology.  The key goals are to:

  • Produce environmentally sound or “GREEN” designs lessening air pollution.
  • Create better fuel usage and conservation.
  • Extend flight range
  • Structure designs so minimal airport alternations will be necessary
  • Improve passenger experience

Tall orders but keep in mind NASA got us to the moon and back.  Why do we feel they will not be able to meet the goals indicated?  As always, I welcome your comments.

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ORDORIFOUS REALITY

January 14, 2017


My company is working on a project involved with capturing methane from the decomposition of organic material in landfill sites.  Research preparatory to accepting the job reviled very interesting facts.  Let’s take a look.

NUMBERS:

The U.S. has 3,091 active landfills and over 10,000 old municipal landfills, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. However, in the “good old days,” every town (and many businesses and factories) had its own dump.  This is somewhat disturbing since these landfills were unregulated.  Upregulation without standards can create situations where effluent can creep into groundwater possibly polluting wells and other sources of potable water.  That has now changed for the better.  The two digital maps below will indicate location and concentration of approved landfill sites.  You certainly can notice the greatest concentration is from the Mississippi River east where population densities are greatest.  This is certainly to be expected.

landfill-map2

landfill-map

Municipal solid waste (MSW) – more commonly known as trash or garbage – consists of everyday items people use and then throw away, such as product packaging, grass clippings, furniture, clothing, bottles, food scraps and papers. In 2010, individuals in the United States generated about 250 million short tons (230 Mt) of trash.   In the United Stateslandfills are regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the states’ environmental agencies. Municipal solid waste landfills (MSWLF) are required to be designed to protect the environment from contaminants that may be present in the solid waste stream

Some materials may be banned from disposal in municipal solid waste landfills including common household items such as paints, cleaners/chemicalsmotor oilbatteriespesticides, and electronics. These products, if mishandled, can be dangerous to health and the environment.  Safe management of solid waste through guidance, technical assistance, regulations, permitting, environmental monitoring, compliance evaluation and enforcement is the goal of the EPA and state environmental agencies.

A typical landfill site looks pretty much as follows:

landfill-storage

You are correct—a big, very big mess.

CODES AND REGULATIONS:

Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) part 258 addresses seven major aspects of MSWLFs, which include the following:

  • Location restrictions—ensure that landfills are built in suitable geological areas away from faults, wetlands, flood plains or other restricted areas.
  • Composite liners requirements—include a flexible membrane (i.e., geo-membrane) overlaying two feet of compacted clay soil lining the bottom and sides of the landfill. They are used to protect groundwater and the underlying soil from leachate releases.
  • Leachate collection and removal systems—sit on top of the composite liner and removes leachate from the landfill for treatment and disposal.
  • Operating practices—include compacting and covering waste frequently with several inches of soil. These practices help reduce odor, control litter, insects, and rodent, and protect public health.
  • Groundwater monitoring requirements—requires testing groundwater wells to determine whether waste materials have escaped from the landfill.
  • Closure and post-closure care requirements—include covering landfills and providing long-term care of closed landfills.
  • Corrective action provisions—control and clean up landfill releases and achieves groundwater protection standards.
  • Financial assurance—provides funding for environmental protection during and after landfill closure (i.e., closure and post-closure care).

TIME LINE FOR METHANE PRODUCTION FROM LANDFILL:

Collection of methane does not occur the first day garbage is dumped into a landfill.  The chart below will indicate the constituents and a typical timeline for production CH (4).

time-line

We are after the methane so as you can see, after two years, approximately, we have roughly twenty percent (20%) of the effluent available for reclama.

Typical characteristics and quantities from decomposition of an established landfill are as follows:

typical-characteristics-and-quantities

HOW WE DO IT:

The JPEG below will indicate a very rough schematic of a landfill site with wells “sunk” to receive mechane and basic piping necessary for the accumulation of mechane.  Well systems consist of a series of vertical LFG extraction wells (perforated or slotted collection pipes) that penetrate to near the bottom of the refuse or to near the depth of saturated waste. Well systems are often recommended for landfills or portions of landfills that exceed 12 m (40 ft.) in depth. The design of a well-system requires an estimate of the rate of LFG production and the radius of influence of the wells. A well- system, either active or passive, is useful for layered landfills where vertical LFG migration is impeded. Because of the variability of landfill refuse, design procedures are difficult to apply to LFG collection systems. Vertical LFG collection wells are typically installed once filling operations have been completed, and are commonly spaced at a frequency of one per acre and are constructed using an auger type drill rig. As a general rule, where LFG collection efficiency is important, it is generally advisable to develop a tighter grid of extraction points with smaller spacings operated at a lower vacuum. It has been found that a vacuum of 10 to 25 inches of water column (in wc) represents a reasonable balance between maximizing zones of influence and minimizing air intrusion into the site. Operating at higher vacuum levels tends to extend the zone of capture beyond the limits of the waste burial and increase the potential for atmospheric air intrusion that could create a landfill fire/explosion hazard. The radius of the capture zone for a vertical extraction well may range from around 50 feet to 200 feet and is strongly dependent on localized landfill conditions. LFG recovery rates from an individual extraction well may range from approximately 10 to 50 cubic feet per minute (cfm).

A depiction of a typical well is shown as follows:

well

Each well must meet EPA standards and have the ability to capture all affluent so contamination of ground water does not occur.  Well extraction piping and well placement patterns may look as follows:

well-extraction-piping

A cross-section of a typical site indicates multiple wells with the landfill area.  The digital below will give you some idea as to schematic piping and flow.

methane-collection

As you can see, after accumulation, the affluent must be cleaned to remove methane.  Constituents possible within the “mix” are as follows:

organic-contaminants

Some of these contaminants are cancer-causing so they must be dealt with prior to collection.

You will notice in our example above; the collected and scrubbed methane is used to fire generators used to produce electricity.  This electricity may be sold back to the grid or used for industry and/or homes.

Examples of LFG Energy Projects:

Projects can vary significantly depending on the size of the landfill, the energy end-user, and other factors. Currently operational projects include:

  • Apex (50 million tons of waste) Las Vegas, NV – CC Landfill Energy LLC is building a plant that will produce 11 megawatts (MW) of electricity for NV Energy, a utility that serves approximately 2.4 million customers.
  • Puente Hills (123 M tons) Whittier, CA – The largest LFG-to-electricity program currently in production, Puente Hills produces 50 megawatts, enough to power roughly 50,000 homes. Additionally, some of Puente Hills’ gas is used to fuel garbage trucks.
  • Rumpke Sanitary (36 M tons) Colerain Township, OH – This landfill site hosts the largest landfill-to-gas facility in the world, recovering approximately 15 million standard cubic feet of LFG per day, which is then distributed by Duke Energy Corporation.
  • Newton County Landfill Partnership (19 M tons) Brook, IN – More than 1.1 million standard cubic feet of gas is captured from Newton County Landfill per day. The energy is used by a nearby factory to make egg cartons.
  • Atlantic Waste (15 M tons) Waverly, VA – This site has in place a 20-mile pipeline to Honeywell’s Hopewell plant. The landfill provides 20 percent of the energy used at the plant.

CONCLUSIONS:

Methane extraction is not only possible but is being accomplished across the United States.  The very short list above indicates those states and cities in which technology is being applied to provide usable energy from old-fashioned garbage.


I want us to consider a “what-if” scenario.  You are thirty-two years old, out of school, and have finally landed a job you really enjoy AND you are actually making money at that job. You have your expenses covered with “traveling money” left over for a little fun.  You recently discovered the possibility that Social Security (SS), when you are ready to retire, will be greatly reduced if not completely eliminated. You MUST start saving for retirement and consider SS to be the icing on the cake if available at all.  QUESTION: Where do you start?  As you investigate the stock markets you find stocks seem to be the best possibility for future income.  Stocks, bonds, “T” bills, etc. all are possibilities but stocks are at the top of the list.

People pay plenty of money for consulting giants to help them figure out which technology trends are fads and which will stick. You could go that route, or get the same thing from the McKinsey Global Institute’s in-house think-tank for the cost of a new book. No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends, was written by McKinsey directors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel, and offers insight into which developments will have the greatest impact on the business world in coming decades. If you chose stocks, you definitely want to look at technology sectors AND consider companies contributing products to those sectors.  The following list from that book may help.  Let’s take a look.

Below, we’re recapping their list of the “Disruptive Dozen”—the technologies the group believes have the greatest potential to remake today’s business landscape.

Batteries

energy-storage

The book’s authors predict that the price of lithium-ion battery packs could fall by a third in the next 10 years, which will have a big impact on not only electric cars, but renewable energy storage. There will be major repercussions for the transportation, power generation, and the oil and gas industries as batteries grow cheaper and more efficient.  Battery technology will remain with us and will contribute to ever-increasing product offerings as time goes by.  Companies supplying this market sector will only increase in importance.

Genomics

genomics

As super computers make the enormously complicated process of genetic analysis much simpler, the authors foresee a world in which “genomic-based diagnoses and treatments will extend patients’ lives by between six months and two years in 2025.” Sequencing systems could eventually become so commonplace that doctors will have them on their desktops.  This is a rapidly growing field and one that has and will save lives.

Material Science

advanced-materials

The ability to manipulate existing materials on a molecular level has already enabled advances in products like sunglasses, bike frames, and medical equipment. Scientists have greater control than ever over nanomaterials in a variety of substances, and their understanding is growing. Health concerns recently prompted Dunkin’ Donuts to remove nanomaterials from their food. But certain advanced nanomaterials show promise for improving health, and even treating cancer. Coming soon: materials that are self-healing, self-cleaning, and that remember their original shape even if they’re bent.

Self-Driving or Autonomous Automobiles

self-driving-vehicles

Autonomous cars are coming, and fast. By 2025, the “driverless revolution” could already be “well underway,” the authors write. All the more so if laws and regulations in the U.S. can adapt to keep up. Case in point: Some BMW cars already park themselves. You will not catch me in a self-driving automobile unless the FED and the auto maker can assure me they are safe.  Continuous effort is being expended to do just that.  These driverless automobiles are coming and we all may just as well get used to it.

Alternate Energy Solutions

reneuable-energy

Wind and solar have never really been competitive with fossil fuels, but McKinsey predicts that status quo will change thanks to technology that enables wider use and better energy storage. In the last decade, the cost of solar energy has already fallen by a factor of 10, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the sun could surpass fossil fuels to become the world’s largest source of electricity by 2050.  I might include with wind and solar, methane recovery from landfills, biodiesel, compressed natural gas, and other environmentally friendly alternatives.

Robotic Systems

advanced-robotics

The robots are coming! “Sales of industrial robots grew by 170% in just two years between 2009 and 2011,” the authors write, adding that the industry’s annual revenues are expected to exceed $40 billion by 2020. As robots get cheaper, more dexterous, and safer to use, they’ll continue to grow as an appealing substitute for human labor in fields like manufacturing, maintenance, cleaning, and surgery.

3-D Printing

3-d-printing

Much-hyped additive manufacturing has yet to replace traditional manufacturing technologies, but that could change as systems get cheaper and smarter. “In the future, 3D printing could redefine the sale and distribution of physical goods,” the authors say. Think buying an electric blueprint of a shoe, then going home and printing it out. The book notes that “the manufacturing process will ‘democratize’ as consumers and entrepreneurs start to print their own products.”

Mobile Devices

mobile-internet

The explosion of mobile apps has dramatically changed our personal experiences (goodbye hookup bars, hello Tinder), as well as our professional lives. More than two thirds of people on earth have access to a mobile phone, and another two or three billion people are likely to gain access over the coming decade. The result: internet-related expenditures outpace even agriculture and energy, and will only continue to grow.

Artificial Intelligence

automation-of-knowledge

It’s not just manufacturing jobs that will be largely replaced by robots and 3D printers. Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel report that by 2025, computers could do the work of 140 million knowledge workers. If Watson can win at “Jeopardy!” there’s nothing stopping computers from excelling at other knowledge work, ranging from legal discovery to sports coverage.

 

The Internet of Things (IoT)

iot

Right now, 99% of physical objects are unconnected to the “internet of things.” It won’t last. Going forward, more products and tools will be controlled via the internet, the McKinsey directors say, and all kinds of data will be generated as a result. Expect sensors to collect information on the health of machinery, the structural integrity of bridges, and even the temperatures in ovens.

Cloud Technology

cloud-technology

The growth of cloud technology will change just how much small businesses and startups can accomplish. Small companies will get “IT capabilities and back-office services that were previously available only to larger firms—and cheaply, too,” the authors write. “Indeed, large companies in almost every field are vulnerable, as start-ups become better equipped, more competitive, and able to reach customers and users everywhere.”

Oil Production

advanced-oil-technology

The International Energy Agency predicts the U.S. will be the world’s largest producer of oil by 2020, thanks to advances in fracking and other technologies, which improved to the point where removing oil from hard-to-reach spots finally made economic sense. McKinsey directors expect increasing ease of fuel extraction to further shift global markets.  This was a real surprise to me but our country has abundant oil supplies and we are already fairly self-sufficient.

Big Data

big-data

There is an ever-increasing accumulation of data from all sources.  At no time in our global history has there been a greater thirst for information.  We count and measure everything now days with the recent election being one example of that very fact.  Those who can control and manage big data are definitely ahead of the game.

CONCLUSION:  It’s a brave new world and a world that accommodates educated individuals.  STAY IN SCHOOL.  Get ready for what’s coming.  The world as we know it will continue to change with greater opportunities as time advances.  Be there.  Also, I would recommend investing in those technology sectors that feed the changes.  I personally don’t think a young investor will go wrong.

INTELLIGENT FLEET SOLUTIONS

October 16, 2016


Ever been on an Interstate?  Ever travel those highways WITHOUT seeing one of the “big rigs”?  I don’t think so. I have a commute every day on Interstate 75 and even at 0530 hours the heavy-duty truck traffic is significant.  As I travel that route, I pass two rest stops dedicated solely for drivers needing to take a break.  They are always full; lights on, engines running. (More about that later.)

Let’s take a very quick look at transportation in the United States to get calibrated as to the scope and breadth of the transportation industry. (NOTE: The following information comes from TruckInfo.net.)

  • How big is the trucking industry?
    The trucking companies, warehouses and private sector in the U.S. employs an estimated 8.9 million people employed in trucking-related jobs; nearly 3.5 million were truck drivers. Of this figure UPS employs 60,000 workers and 9% are owner operators.  LTL shippers account for around 13.6 percent of America’s trucking sector.
  • How many trucks operate in the U.S.?
    Estimates of 15.5 million trucks operate in the U.S.  Of this figure 2 million are tractor trailers.
  • How many truckers are there?
    It is an estimated over 3.5 million truck drivers in the U.S.  Of that one in nine are independent, a majority of which are owner operators. Canada has in excess of 250,000 truck drivers.
  • How many trucking companies are there in the U.S.?
    Estimates of 1.2 million companies in the U.S. Of that figure 97% operate 20 or fewer while 90% operate 6 or fewer trucks.
  • How many miles does the transportation industry transports good in a year?
    In 2006 the transportation industry logged 432.9 billion miles. Class 8 trucks accounted for 139.3 billion of those miles, up from 130.5 billion in 2005
  • What is the volume of goods transported by the trucking industry?
    The United States economy depends on trucks to deliver nearly 70 percent of all freight transported annually in the U.S., accounting for $671 billion worth of manufactured and retail goods transported by truck in the U.S. alone. Add $295 billion in truck trade with Canada and $195.6 billion in truck trade with Mexico.

As you can see, the transportation industry, moving products from point “A” to point “B” by truck, is HUGE—absolutely HUGE.    With this being the case, our country has established goals to improving gas mileage for passenger cars, light trucks and heavy-duty trucks.  These goals are dedicated to improving gas mileage but also goals to reduce emissions.  Let’s take a look.

Passenger Car and Light Truck Standards for 2017 and beyond

In 2012, NHTSA established final passenger car and light truck CAFE standards for model years 2017-2021, which the agency projects will require in model year 2021, on average, a combined fleet-wide fuel economy of 40.3-41.0 mpg. As part of the same rulemaking action, EPA issued GHG standards, which are harmonized with NHTSA’s fuel economy standards that are projected to require 163 grams/mile of carbon dioxide (CO2) in model year 2025.  EPA will reexamine the GHG standards for model years 2022-2025 and NHTSA will set new CAFE standards for those model years in the next couple of years, based on the best available information at that time.

The Big Rigs

On June 19, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced major increases for fuel efficiency of heavy-duty trucks. Part of President Obama’s comprehensive Climate Action Plan, Phase 2 of the Heavy-Duty National Program tightens emission standards for heavy-duty trucks and includes big rigs, delivery vehicles, dump trucks and buses.  The updated efficiency rule for trucks joins a growing list of fuel efficiency measures, including the President’s 2012 doubling of fuel efficiency standards for cars and light-duty trucks (CAFE standards), as well as expected aircraft rules, following the agency’s finding that aircraft emissions endanger human health.

While the miles per gallon (mpg) rating of cars and light duty trucks has increased over the last decade or so, the fuel efficiency of heavy-duty trucks has held at 5 mpg for over four decades. Conversely, the average passenger vehicle reached 24 mpg in 2010.  Under CAFE, cars and light duty trucks are set to reach 54.5 MPG by 2025. 

According to EPA, heavy-duty trucks are the fastest growing emissions segment of the U.S. transportation sector; they are currently responsible for twenty percent (20%) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while comprising just four percent (4%) of on-road vehicles.  Heavy duty trucks power the consumer economy, carrying seventy percent (70%) of all U.S. freight – weighing in at 10 billion tons of everything from food to electronics, building materials, clothes and other consumer goods.

As you can see, the goals are not only reduction in fuel usage but improvements in emissions.  There are companies and programs dedicated to meeting these goals.  The reason for this post is to indicate that people and companies are working to provide answers; solving problems; providing value-added to our environment and even our way of life. One such company is Intelligent Fleet Solutions.

The big questions is, how do we meet these goals?  The burden is up to companies manufacturing the engines and design of the cabs and trailers.  Alternate fuels are one answer; i.e. using CNG (compressed natural gas), biofuels, hydrogen, etc. but maybe not the entire answer.

One manner in which these goals may be met is reducing engine idle while trucks are at rest.  The following chart will explain the dilemma and one target for reduction in petroleum consumption.

gas-usage-at-idle

This chart shows petroleum consumption of various vehicles at idle.  Notice: diesel engine consumption can use up to 1.00 gallon per hour when idling.  Question, can we lessen this consumption?

Companies designing and manufacturing devices to contribute to this effort are being introduced helping to drive us towards meeting really tough café goals.  One such company is Intelligent Fleet Solutions. Let’s take a look.

INTELLIGENT FLEET SOLUTIONS

What if the vehicle you drive could automatically alter its performance by doing the following?

  • Governing maximum speed in Class 8 vehicles
  • Optimizing acceleration
  • Providing for a more efficient cruise

If you look carefully at the following brochure you will see a device that provides all three.  The DERIVE program is downloaded into your vehicle’s ECM (Electronic Control Module) allowing control from generic to specific.  You are in control.  The program is contained in a hand-held pendent that “jacks” into the same receptacle used to reset your check engine light.  Heavy-duty trucks may have another port for this pendent but the same process is used.  The great part—the software is quick loading and low cost.  A driver or owner has a payback considerably less one year.  My friend Amy Dobrikova is an approved reseller for DERIVE technologies. Please contact her for further information at 765-617-8614.

derive

derive-2

CONCLUSIONS:  Intelligent Fleet Solutions performs a great service in helping to preserve non-renewable fossil fuels AND lessening or eliminating harmful effluent from our environment.  “Solutions” recognizes the fact that “all hands must be on deck” to solve emission problems and conserve remaining petroleum supplies.  This company embodies the fact that America is still THE country in which technology is applied to solve problems and insure specific goals are met.  Intelligent Fleet Solutions is a great contributor to that effort.  Check them out at intelligent-fleet.com


As you probably know, I don’t “DO” politics.  I stay with STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics).  In other words, subjects I actually know something about.  With that being the case, I do feel the technical community must have definite opinions relative to pronouncements made by our politicians.  Please keep in mind; most politicians have other than technical degrees so they are dependent upon input from individuals in the STEM professions.  That’s really what this post is about—opinions relative to Senator Sander’s Energy Plan. (NOTE: My facts are derived from Senator Sander’s web site and Design News Daily Magazine.  Mr. Charles Murray wrote an article in March detailing several points of Sander’s plan. )

Sanders’ ideas seemingly represent a growing viewpoint with the American population at large. He fared fairly well in the Iowa caucuses and won the New Hampshire primary election although history indicates he will not be the Democratic candidate facing the GOP representative unless Secretary Clinton is indicted by the FBI.  I personally feel this has a snowball’s chance of happening.    Sanders’ popularity provides an opportunity for engineers to weigh in on some of the hard issues facing the country in the energy arena. We want to know:  How do seasoned engineers react to some of his ideas? Let’s look first at a brief statement from “Bernie” relative to his ideas on energy.

“Right now, we have an energy policy that is rigged to boost the profits of big oil companies like Exxon, BP, and Shell at the expense of average Americans. CEO’s are raking in record profits while climate change ravages our planet and our people — all because the wealthiest industry in the history of our planet has bribed politicians into complacency in the face of climate change. Enough is enough. It’s time for a political revolution that takes on the fossil fuel billionaires, accelerates our transition to clean energy, and finally puts people before the profits of polluters.”

                                                                                                — Senator Bernie Sanders

THE GOALS

Bernie’s comprehensive plan to combat climate change and insure our planet is habitable and safe for our kids and grandkids will:

  • Cut U.S. carbon pollution by forty percent (40%) by 2030 and by over eighty percent (80%) by 2050 by 1.) putting a tax on carbon pollution, 2.) repealing fossil fuel subsidies and 3.) Making massive investments in energy efficiency and clean, sustainable energy such as wind and solar power.
  • Create a Clean-Energy Workforce of ten (10) million good-paying jobs by creating a one hundred percent (100%) clean energy system. Transitioning toward a completely nuclear-free clean energy system for electricity, heating, and transportation is not only possible and affordable it will create millions of good jobs, clean up our air and water, and decrease our dependence on foreign oil.
  • Return billions of dollars to consumers impacted by the transformation of our energy system and protect the most vulnerable communities in the country suffering the ravages of climate change. Bernie will tax polluters causing the climate crisis, and return billions of dollars to working families to ensure the fossil fuel companies don’t subject us to unfair rate hikes. Bernie knows that climate change will not affect everyone equally – disenfranchised minority communities and the working poor will be hardest hit. The carbon tax will also protect those most impacted by the transformation of our energy system and protect the most vulnerable communities in the country suffering the ravages of climate change.

THE PLAN:

  1. Acceleration Away from Fossil Fuels. Sanders proposes a carbon tax that he believes would reduce carbon pollution 40% by 2030 and 80% by 2050. He also wants to ban Arctic oil drilling, ban offshore drilling, stop pipeline projects like the Keystone XL, stop exports of liquefied natural gas and crude oil, ban fracking for natural gas, and ban mountaintop removal coal mining.  Ban fossil fuels lobbyists from working in the White House. Massive lobbying and unlimited super PAC donations by the fossil fuel industry gives these profitable companies disproportionate influence on our elected leaders. This practice is business as usual in Washington and it is not acceptable. Heavy-handed lobbying causes climate change skepticism. It has no place in the executive office.
  2. Investment in Clean Sustainable Energy. Sanders proposes investments in development of solar, wind, and geothermal energy plants, as well as cellulosic ethanol, algae-based fuels, and energy storage. As part of his move to cleaner energy sources, he is also calling for a moratorium on nuclear power plant license renewals in the US.
  3. Revolutionizing of Electric Transportation Infrastructure. To begin ridding the country of tailpipe emissions, Sanders wants to build electric vehicle charging stations, as well as high-speed passenger rail and cargo systems. Funds, he says, would also be needed to update and modernize the existing energy grid. Finally, he is calling for extension of automotive fuel economy standards to 65 mpg, instead of the planned 54.5 mpg, by 2025.
  4. Reclaiming of Our Democracy from the Fossil Fuel Lobby. Sanders wants to ban fossil fuel lobbyists from the White House. More importantly, he is proposing a “climate justice plan” that would bring deniers to justice “so we can aggressively tackle climate change.” He has already called for an investigation of Exxon Mobil, his website says.

COMMENTS FROM ENGINEERS:

  • As engineers we should recognize the value of confronting real problems rather than dwelling on demagoguery. Go Bernie.  This comment is somewhat generic but included because there is an incredible quantity of demagoguery in political narrative today.  Most of what we here is without specifics.
  • “Without fuel, we have no material or energy to manufacture anything. Plastics, fertilizer (food), metals, medicine –- all rely on fuel … We are not going to reduce our need for fuel by eighty percent (80%) without massive technology breakthroughs.”  I might add, those breakthroughs are decades away from being cost effective.
  • “I like the idea of renewable energy and I think there are many places in which we are on the right track. A big question is how fast it takes to get there. The faster the transition, the more pain will occur … The slower the transition, the more comfortably we’ll all be able to adapt.”
  • “Imagine if we had rolling power outages throughout the United States on a daily basis because of the shutdown of coal or nuclear power plants.”
  • Another engineer wrote that “the actual numbers of death and cancer risks associated with all the nuclear disasters from Three Mile Island to (Chernobyl) and the Fukushima plant pale in comparison to the result of death and misery of coal and fossil fuel power plants supplying most of our electricity today and for the foreseeable future.”
  • Another commenter said that “for Sanders to rid the US of fossil fuels, he must be one hundred percent (100%) in favor of nuclear energy. No amount of wind, solar, or geothermal will ever replace an ever-growing energy need.”
  • Little or no attention in the forum was paid to the issue of intermittency –- in particular, whether a grid that’s heavy in renewables would be plagued by intermittency problems and, if so, how that might be solved. Intermittent problems where no electrical power will NOT be tolerated by the US population.  I think that’s a given.  We are dependent upon electrical energy.  This certainly includes needed security.

As a parting shot we read: “I am suggesting that folks carefully examine the record of those yelling the loudest, and then decide what to believe,” noted reader William K. “As engineering professionals, we should always be examining the history as well as the current.”

I would offer a sanity check:  WE WILL NEVER COMPLETELY REMOVE OURSELVES FROM THE PRODUCTS PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUELS.  We must get over it.  As always, I welcome your comments.


Kelley Blue Book (KBB)  recently examined the world of high-efficiency cars the same way a tight-fisted consumer might. That might be why five of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s ten (10) most fuel-efficient cars didn’t even make the list.

I have collected photos of KBB’s best, along with a few extra shots of high-mileage vehicles that didn’t make the cut. From pure electrics to hybrids to turbo diesels, the following is a look at the best and greenest cars on the road today. Before we take a look, let’s gage our post by looking at a very brief history of KBB.

HISTORY:

In 1918, a young man named Les Kelley parked three Model T Fords in an open lot, put $450 in the till and started the Kelley Kar Company. It was to become the largest dealership in the world and, along the way, spawn a need for placing values on used and even new cars, known as Blue Book® values.

1914 was an interesting year. A 19-year-old named Babe Ruth pitched his first game in the majors as a Baltimore Oriole.  And Les Kelley, the son of a preacher from Arkansas, made his way to California at the age of 17.

Les had no money and no job, but he owned an old car. It was in fine shape because he had a knack for mechanics and had overhauled it himself. All of his friends admired his car and frequently tried to buy it. After much persuasion he finally did sell it to one of them. With the money he received from this deal Les bought another old Ford. After giving this car a thorough overhauling, he traded it off, taking in two used cars and a little money on the deal. He reconditioned these cars and sold them. With the money he bought other used automobiles and found himself making enough money to pay his way through college.

1918 was an interesting year. Babe Ruth was now a pitcher for the Boston Red Sox, as they defeated the Chicago Cubs in the World Series. World War I ended on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month. And like many young men at the end of the war, Les Kelley sought to establish himself in the business world. He leased part of a lot from another car dealer in Los Angeles and started the Kelley Kar Company with three cars for sale. His brother, Buster, at age 13, joined Les as a lot boy, changing tires and washing cars. By the age of 18 Buster ran the repair shop with a dozen mechanics, and Les managed sales. Les and Buster did so well that they had to move to progressively larger sites.

In the early 1920s, to help acquire new inventory, Les Kelley distributed to other dealers and to banks a list of automobiles he wished to buy and the prices he was willing to pay for them. The automotive community began to trust his judgment so much as an accurate reflection of current values, they started to request the list for their own use. When someone asked a dealer what his used car might be worth, the dealer usually took a look at Mr. Kelley’s list, conveniently tucked under his desk blotter. It didn’t take long for Les Kelley to realize that he could provide an ongoing service to dealers and bankers alike.

1926 was an interesting year for individual achievement. A 19-year-old American named Gertrude Ederle swam the English Channel. “Our Trudy” was the first woman to conquer the Channel, and her time was almost two hours faster than the men’s record. Babe Ruth led the Yankees into the World Series (although he made the final out in game seven, when he was caught stealing). Edsel Ford had risen to President of Ford Motor Company, soon to announce the Model A.

And in Los Angeles, Les Kelley decided to expand the list of automobile values he had been producing since 1918 and published the first Blue Book of Motor Car Values . He showed factory list price and cash value on thousands of vehicles, from Cadillacs to Duesenbergs, from Pierce-Arrows to Hupmobiles. A 1926 Packard sedan limousine with balloon tires might fetch as much as $3,825. But a 1921 Nash touring car, even with a clock, was only worth $50. Les named the publication Blue Book after the Social Register, because it meant that you would find valuable information inside. (Emily Post had also just published her first book of etiquette, which was to later be named Etiquette: The Blue Book of Social Usage ). And Les Kelley was to make Kelley Blue Book synonymous with the authoritative source for car values. To this day, across the country, people ask the question, “What’s the Blue Book value of my car?” At the dealership Les was selling “Selected Blue Seal Automobiles,” so he carried the blue and gold ribbon medallion onto the cover of the Blue Book, where it remains today.

By the late 1950s Les Kelley, then in his sixties, decided to cash in on some of that success. He made a decision to sell the dealerships rather than move them again (this time would have meant a move from downtown L.A., the current site of the Staples Center). By 1962 the Kelleys were completely out of the car business and devoting full time to the Blue Book , with Buster as Publisher and Bob (shown here) as Assistant Publisher. The company moved to Long Beach and later to Orange County. Les continued to be active in the business until his death in 1990, at the age of 93.

For the next 30 years the Blue Book was to thrive as a “trade” publication, meaning it was only sold to businesses involved in the automotive industry, such as car dealers, financial institutions and insurance companies. These customers used the bimonthly book to determine everything from loan values to suggested retail prices. Kelley Blue Book continued to innovate, becoming the first publication to show the effect of high or low mileage on a car’s value.

As a natural evolution, the company began publishing other value guides. A New Car Price Manual was added in 1966, and the company became the industry’s leading provider of pricing services. Auto dealers sometimes carried recreational vehicles or took them as trade-ins, so they needed information on these too. Kelley Blue Book developed RV guides that place values on everything from travel trailers to campers to ATVs to snowmobiles. A separate Motorcycle Guide was published, and a Manufactured Housing Guide.

As the quality of cars improved, people began to drive them longer. The average age of a vehicle on the road today has been estimated to be about nine years. The Blue Book covered seven years, so it made sense to produce a sister publication, the Older Car Guide , that provided values another 14 years back. Then came the Early Model Guide , which today provides values all the way back to 1946!

In 1993 Kelley Blue Book made its initial venture into the consumer marketplace by publishing a Consumer Edition of the Blue Book . It quickly became the nation’s number-one-selling automotive book, often making the USA Today best-seller list. It features 15 years of used car values on more than 10,000 models of cars, trucks and vans and is available in bookstores, auto supply stores and other locations.

Quietly though, something called the World Wide Web was introducing regular people to a medium called the Internet. It was innovation time again, and Kelley Blue Book saw a further opportunity to facilitate transactions between consumers and retailers. The company created a Web site, kbb.com, running on a single PC and offering first, new car prices in 1995 and then its famous used car values in 1996. Early in 1996, 20,000 people a month found their way to the site, largely by word-of-mouth. That number has grown a bit since then and now exceeds seven million visitors a month coming to kbb.com and millions more viewing Blue Book information on numerous portals and other automotive sites, including those of auto manufacturers and car dealers.

When kbb.com was launched in 1995, it charged consumers $3.95 for a pricing report. Almost immediately Kelley Blue Book received email from some customers arguing that information on the Internet should be free. Rather than disagree with its own customers, the company pulled the plug on charging after just three weeks and began the switch to a business run like radio and television, supported by advertising and partners. The pricing reports have been free to consumers ever since.

KBB’s 2015 RATINGS:

So much for history. Let’s now take a look at what KBB considers fifteen of the “greenest” automobiles in the lineup today.  Here we go.

VW JETTA

VW GOLF

TOYOTA CAMRY HIBRID

TESLA

SMART CAR

PRIUS

LEAF

KIA

HONDA HYBRID

FORD FOCUS

FORD C-MAX HYBRID


FIAT E

 

CHEVY VOLT

CHEVY SPARK

BMW i3

Please note, the automobiles given above, for the most part, look at mileage only. Not reliability or cost of ownership.  Those numbers represent a post for another day.  Hope you enjoy this one.

EMBRAER

March 27, 2015


You know Dasher and Dancer and Prancer and Vixson, Gulfstream and Piper and Beechcraft and Cessna; but do you recall the least-known aircraft of all?  OK, so I’m not a poet or songwriter.  Have you ever heard of an aircraft manufacturer called EMBRAER?  Do you recognize their logotype?

LOGO

Well, I’ll bet you have flown on one of their aircraft.

HISTORY:

Embraer S.A. is a Brazilian aerospace conglomerate that produces commercial, military, executive and agricultural aircraft.  The company also provides corporate and private aeronautical services. It is headquartered in ão José dos Campos in the State of São Paulo.

On August 19, 1969, Embraer; (Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A.) was created. With the support of the Brazilian government, the Company turned science and technology into engineering and industrial capacity. The Brazilian government was seeking a domestic aircraft manufacture thus making several investment attempts during the 1940s and ’50s to fulfill this need.    Its first president, Ozires Silva, was appointed by the Brazilian government to run the company.   EMBRAER initially produced one turboprop passenger aircraft, the Embraer EMB 110 Bandeirante, a project organized and executed by Ozires Silva. The first EMB 110 Bandeirante to be produced in series made its maiden flight on August 9, 1972. On the 19th of that same month, a public ceremony was held at the Embraer headquarters, attended by officials, employees and journalists from not only Brazil but several countries in South America. That aircraft is shown by the digital below.

40 Years Ago

By the end of the ‘70s, the development of new products, such as the EMB 312 Tucano and the EMB 120 Brasilia, followed by the AMX program in cooperation with Aeritalia (currently Alenia) and Aermacchi companies, allowed Embraer to reach a new technological and industrial level.  At exactly 8:44 AM, on April 8, 1982, the twin-engines EMB 121 Xingu PP-ZXA and PP-ZXB took off from São José dos Campos, piloted by Brasílico Freire Netto, Carlos Arlindo Rondom, Paulo César Schuler Remido and Luiz Carlos Miguez Urbano, en route to France. They were the first two aircraft of a total of forty-one (41) ordered by the French government for use in training military pilots from the Air Force (Armé de L’Air) and Naval Aviation (Aeronavale) department. The aircraft were delivered to the French authorities on April 16, at Le Bourget Airport.  That aircraft may be seen as follows:

Comissioned by the French

The EMB 120 Brasilia aircraft became an important milestone in the history of Embraer. Developed as a response to the evolving demands of the regional air transport industry, its design took advantage of the most advanced technologies available at the time. It was the fastest, lightest and most economical airplane in its category.  Most of the EMB 120s were sold in the United States and other destinations in the Western Hemisphere. Some European airlines such as Régional in France, Atlant-Soyuz Airlines in Russia, DAT in Belgium, and DLT in Germany also purchased EMB-120s. Serial production ended in 2001. As of 2007, it is still available for one-off orders, as it shares much of the production equipment with the ERJ-145 family, which is still being produced. The Angolan Air Force, for example, received a new EMB 120 in 2007.  If you’ve done much flying at all you probably have flown on the EMB 120. SkyWest Airlines operates the largest fleet of EMB 120s under the United Express and Delta Connection brand. Great Lakes Airlines operates six EMB 120s in its fleet, and Ameriflight flies eight as freighters.  This configuration has been a real short-haul workhorse. Another, and possibly better look, is as follows:

Air Moldova

COMMERCIAL LONG-HAUL:

Another workhorse is the EMBRAER 195.  That aircraft may be seen below.  It costs approximately $40 Million, which is just as expensive as the average narrow-body passenger jet and seats 108 passengers in a typical layout, 8 more than the average narrow-body passenger plane. The maximum seating capacity is 122 passengers in an all-economy class configuration.   The 195 uses roughly $11.64 worth of fuel per nautical mile flown (assuming $6 per gallon of jet fuel).  On a per-seat basis, this translates to being 7.3% more cost-efficient than the average aircraft.

A maximum range of 2,200 nautical miles (equal to 2,530 miles) makes this aircraft most appropriate for long domestic flights, or very short international flights.   With a service ceiling (max cruise altitude) of 41,000 feet, it is just slightly higher than the norm for this type of aircraft and can certainly get above most weather patterns along the flight route.

EMBRAER 195.doc

BUSINESS JET:

The Embraer EMB-505 Phenom 300 is a light jet aircraft developed by Embraer which can carry eight (8) or nine (9) occupants.  It has a flying range of 1,971 nmi (3,650 km) and carries a price estimate between US $ 5 million and US $ 8 million in 2012.

At 45,000 feet (14,000 m), the Phenom 300 is pressurized to a cabin altitude of 6,600 feet (2,000 m). The jet features single-point refueling and an externally serviced private rear lavatory, refreshment center and baggage area. It received FAA Type Certification on 14 December 2009 as the Embraer EMB-505.

On 29 December 2009 Embraer delivered the first Phenom 300 to Executive Flight Services at the company’s headquarters at São José dos Campos, Brazil.  In just four years, the Phenom 300 climbed to the top position on the list of most delivered business jets, with 60 units delivered in 2013. The Phenom 300 is the fastest seller in NetJets‘ inventory, counting thirty-six (36).  A beautiful aircraft with the ten (10)  most recent deliveries totaling $90 million. 

BUSINESS

MILITARY ISSUE:

Embraer has started work on modernizing a second production of Northrop F-5E fighters and F-model trainers for the Brazilian air force.

Three aircraft from a total of 11 are already being worked on at the company’s facilities in Gavião Peixoto, Brazil, with deliveries expected to start later this year. Embraer says it completed the delivery of a first batch of 46 modified F-5EM/FMs in 2012.  That aircraft is shown below.

Fighter

Both the modernized F-5M and AMX are being upgraded to a common avionics configuration. “What we are doing in Brazil is basically a commonality between the Super Tucano, F-5 and the AMX so that the pilots would not have many problems for transition,” Embraer says. “You also reduce costs and assist in training.”

The AMX and F-5 fleets are also receiving Elbit Systems-built radars, in addition to upgraded electronic warfare equipment, in-flight refueling systems and other improvements.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian navy is also upgrading its small fleet of 12 Douglas A-4 Skyhawk carrier-based light strike aircraft. At least one of the Skyhawks is currently being modernized at Gavião Peixoto, but Embraer could not immediately offer any details.

Alongside the modernization work for the Brazilian military, the factory at Gavião Peixoto is at work building a number of Super Tucanos for export customers in Angola and Indonesia.

Brazil is has previously increased spending on defense to prepare hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and Olympic Games 2016 respectively.

There is also a growing realization in the country that it will have to work diligently in the future to protect its vast natural resources. This could unfortunately require military preparedness.

Another example of Embraer’s military ability may be seen from the following aircraft:

Heavy Duty Cargo Aircraft

The Embraer KC-390 is a medium-size, twin-engine jet-powered military transport aircraft now under development.  It is able to perform aerial refueling and to transport cargo and troops and will be the heaviest aircraft the company has in its inventory.  It will be able to transport up to 21 metric tons (23 short tons) of cargo, including wheeled armored fighting vehicles.

AGRICULTURAL:

The Ipanema is the market leader, with 50 years of continuous production and over 1,300 units sold, representing about 75% of the nation’s fleet in this segment.   The Ipanema agricultural aircraft is a leading agricultural market in Brazil, with about 60% share.  There has been 40 years of continuous production and constant research to improve the aircraft.  That concentration of effort always focused on the needs of the customers and the national agricultural market.  This brand demonstrates the reliability, solidity and tradition of Ipanema.  One other fact, the Ipanema is the first aircraft certified to fly powered solely by ethanol.  In addition to the economic advantages and obtained improvement in engine performance, ethanol is a renewable source of energy, which helps protect the environment.

Agricultural

CONCLUSION:

As you can see, the United States aircraft manufacturers do have competition and excellent competition at that.    This foreign entry keeps us on our toes.

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