IT AIN’T OVER TILL IT’S OVER

March 31, 2020


Information for this post was taken from a blog by HANNAH BLEAU

31 Mar 2020.

Just about every country in the world is in a tough place right now.   The chart below will give you some idea as to where we are relative to the number of deaths by country. This is as of 31 March 2020.

Not a pretty picture at all.

When it comes to the arrival of the coronavirus, not all states are facing the same timeline. Some states, like New York and Louisiana, have quickly become epicenters of the virus in the United States and, as a result, will reach a resource-peak-weeks sooner than states like Kentucky and Missouri, which are not expected to reach their highest demand until the second week of May. The various projections, based on peak hospital resource demand caused by the virus, could explain why some governors are taking more aggressive, imminent actions in their response to the pandemic.  Information is fed into projection models to estimate specific time lines.  Please keep in mind, these projections can certainly change depending upon the number of people in each being tested.  Right now, more test kits are becoming available but we are far from completing all of the tests necessary when an individual feels he or she has symptoms.

We have a neighbor two doors down whose son had symptoms, spent two weeks and four hospital visits before being tested and an additional three weeks before he was determined to have negative results.  It’s better, as a matter of fact, it gets better every week but we are far from testing those needing to find out.  At this time, there are test kits available to medical practitioners that can give results within two or three hours.

PROJECTIONS BY STATE:

Here are the projected peaks for all 50 states, plus D.C., per the IHME model. The model takes into consideration the number of beds needed, as well as ventilators.

New York, for example, is expected to hit its resource peak April 9. The current model, at the time of this publication, estimates a bed shortage of 60,610 and 9,055 ventilators needed. A state like Kentucky, however, is not expected to reach its peak until May 12. It shows the state having a surplus of beds and 288 ventilators needed.

The model you will see below shows April 14 as the peak for the United States as a whole. However, it notes that the projections are contingent on the continuation of “strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.”  In other words, stay inside or at least maintain a six foot (6’) separation between yourself and someone else.  Wash your hands. Shower at least once per day.  Contrary to what you hear, when you feel you have to go out, i.e. grocery store, pharmacy, doctor’s office, etc wear a protective mask. Wash your clothes after wearing and wear only one “outfit” per day then wash. 

President Trump officially extended the “Slow the Spread” coronavirus guidelines to April 30 during a press conference over the weekend.  PLEASE NOTE:  THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME.

Here is the resource peak for each state. Resource details can be found here:

CONCLUSION:  Here is the tragedy:   The Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in United States of America is 83,967.  Yogie was correct:  “It ain’t over till it’s over.  PLEASE STAY HEALTHY.  Do what you have to do to stay healthy.

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