JOBS JOBS JOBS

April 5, 2017


I think we all hope meaningful employment for everyone wishing to work and physically able to work.

According to CNBC, we have the following statement:

“Companies added 263,000 jobs for the month, ADP and Moody’s Analytics said. That was well above the 185,000 expected from economists surveyed by Reuters and also better than the 245,000 reported for February.

The February number was revised significantly lower, however, from the originally reported 298,000.

In addition to the big gain on the headline number, the month also continued a trend away from services-oriented positions dominating job creation. Goods-producing firms contributed 82,000 to the total, as construction led the way with 49,000 new jobs.

Professional and business services was the leading sector, with 57,000, while leisure and hospitality added 55,000 and health care was up 46,000. Manufacturing payrolls grew by 30,000 and trade, transportation and utilities rose by 34,000.

In terms of company size, fewer than 50 employees represented the greatest growth area, with 118,000. Firms that employ 50 to 499 workers added 100,000.”

“The report comes amid hopes that President Donald Trump can deliver on his pro-growth agenda of lower taxes, less regulation and more infrastructure spending. Economic data points have been mixed lately, with sentiment surveys outpacing actual hard data of activity.”

The bar graph below indicates private sector job growth, or lack thereof for the last several months.  I do not think anyone would argue with the statement we are facing a growing economy but that growth is not robust by any stretch of the imagination.

Another very good sign our economy just might be on the mend:

“The U.S. trade deficit shrank by nearly 10 percent in February, hinting that the economy may be growing at a faster pace than many economists expect.

The deficit fell to a seasonally adjusted $43.6 billion, lower than the $44.6 billion economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had expected. Exports rose 0.2 percent to $192.9 billion in February while imports declined 1.8 percent to $236.4 billion, the Department of Commerce said Tuesday.”

 

The chart below indicates that drop.  We still are running a trade deficit but with the push for more “on-shoring” that deficit may continue to shrink.  This will undoubtedly improve the job market “state-side” and provide added employment.

The bar charts below will show Annual GDP growth rates, corporate profits, and single family home process.   I think each chart indicates recovery is still very incremental and some would say sluggish.  Our politicians in Washington indicate the following:

  • The repeal and replacement of the Affordable Healthcare Act will greatly reduce healthcare costs for the individual consumer.
  • The reduction of “red tape” and regulations for business owners will provide incentives for investment in companies and individual businesses.
  • Rework of the Federal Tax Code and subsequent reduction in corporate and individual tax rates will provide for much greater growth in GDP and corporate profits.
  • Increased trade with other nations will reduce the trade deficit and promote job growth
  • Significant increases in infrastructure spending will definitely improve job growth and job outlook.
  • “Leveling the playing field” relative to NAFTA and other global trade agreements can greatly improve job growth in the United States.

CONCLUSIONS:

All of these things can and possibly will improve job growth and aid our economy.  The big questions is—can Congress get together and pass legislation to get things moving again and in the proper fashion?  This week Congress is going home for Ester vacation.  Another vacation.   What if they remained in Washington, worked through Easter, stayed on the job, and provided their constituents with value-added?

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