AIR TRANSPORTATION IN ASIA—THE NEXT 20 YEARS

March 3, 2013


Industry Week, February 25, 2013 was the resource for this posting

Asia to Acquire Almost 10,000 Planes Over 20 Years —Airbus predicts the region will account for 35% of aircraft deliveries worldwide and 40% of the market in terms of value during the next 20 years.” 

That’s the headline and comment by Airbus.   Their production forecast for the Middle-East and the Pacific Rim through the next twenty years.   In my opinion, this is a significant forecast and one that would indicate a drop in North American power and an increase in Middle and Far Eastern power.  It is a changing world.

Asia-Pacific carriers will take delivery of 9,870 new passenger and cargo aircraft valued at $1.6 trillion over the next 20 years, European plane manufacturer Airbus said Monday.

The region will account for 35% of aircraft deliveries worldwide and 40% of the market in terms of value during the period, putting it ahead of Europe and North America, Airbus said.

Airbus expects a total of 28,200 new aircraft deliveries globally with a market value of $4.0 trillion in the next 20 years.

“Everything is going to grow, but the shift to Asia-Pacific in terms of market share and market presence is going to be enormous,” said Airbus chief operating officer John Leahy.

“Growing economies, bigger cities and increasing wealth will see more people flying, driving the need for larger and more efficient aircraft,” he said.

Emerging markets like China and India as well as the growing middle class in the region are powering demand for new aircraft, Leahy said, with Asia-Pacific carriers favoring wide-body models.  NOTE:  This is a significant departure for aircraft requirements flown “state-side”.  The wide-body models are thought to be difficult for some airports and more conventional configurations will be employed.

The size of the middle class in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to increase fivefold from 746 million in 2011 to 3.4 billion in 2031, according to estimates cited by Airbus.   In contrast, the number of people making up the middle class in North America is expected to drop while a modest increase is predicted for Europe during the 20-year period.

Domestic travel in the United States, which currently holds the largest share of world passenger traffic, is also expected to be matched by travel within China in 2031 at 10.4% of the global total.

Copyright Agence France-Presse, 2013

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