STANDING ON THE PRECIPICE

 

STANDING ON THE PRECIPICE

This blog was written using the following resources:

• FF JOURNAL; “Help Wanted, Skills Required” by Meghan Boyer-Editor-In-Chief, February 2012 Edition
• Manhattan Institute for Policy Research; “Leaving Boys Behind: Public High School Graduation Rates” by Jay P. Greene and Marcus A. Winters.
• “Suicide of a Superhero” by Patrick J. Buchanan

Over the last century, one of the strongest sectors of our economy has been  manufacturing.  “Made in America” has been molded into, printed on and adhered to billions of products used in the United States and shipped around the world.  We take a great deal of pride in the products we design and produce.  Manufacturing is making a comeback to American shores for several very good reasons; namely:

• Poor quality abroad. (After the first prototypes are accepted and first piece samples approved, the quality does seem to drop—at least with some companies.)
• Issues with communication
• Misuse of stated and agreed upon standards and specifications (This is becoming a huge issue.  Foreign manufacturers do not seem to understand that changing materials, fastener callouts, paint and coating specifications, etc. can create real problems.)
• Rising labor rates in other countries (Due to Facebook, U-Tube, Twitter, etc.  foreign workers are beginning to understand that they have been greatly short-changed relative to wages. )
• Difficult working conditions for individuals in other countries (Sweat shops!)
• Unrest around the world (If you do not believe this, go buy a tank of gas.  The unrest in the Middle-East is causing speculators to elevate the cost of petroleum. )
• Issues with transportation relative to “lean” manufacturing and inventory control (I retired from GE and I know air freight from China, India, etc. to keep the assembly lines operating can cost a fortune.)
• The effect foreign manufacturing has on national security (When you lose the ability to manufacturer products you lose the ability to control the assemblies you design.  You also relinquish a great deal of intellectual property.  Designers and engineers work very hard to develop products only to give the designs away to thieves waiting in the wings.  )

Fully, eighty-six (86%) percent of Americans believe manufacturing is important or very important to our standard of living BUT, only thirty-three (33%) percent would encourage their children to make manufacturing their profession.  Somewhat of a disconnect but traditionally, a job in manufacturing does not pay as much as other professions.   That fact is changing.

There are two very grave issues that affect manufacturing I would like to discuss at this time.  These are: 1.) Skilled labor available and 2.) High school dropout rates affecting the selection of personnel to fill the jobs available.  Let’s take a look.

• 2.7 million manufacturing workers are 55 years or older and will retire within 5 to 10 years.  These workers are retiring at a rate twice the rate as young people joining the work force.  People with years of experience need to be the “trainers” for those coming into the various skilled jobs.
• Right now, Deloitte, LLC estimates that 600,000 skilled positions are open and not being filled due to the lack of qualified applicants.  When we mean qualified, we mean individuals who have adequate reading, math and English skills.  Communication is an absolute must for high-tech employees—both written and spoken.
• 67% of manufacturing companies have a moderate to severe shortage of qualified workers.
• 56% of those companies expect the condition to worsen in the next three to five years.  As stated, “There is a worsening skills gap in manufacturing and it is impacting the ability of a company to grow, expand and remain competitive”.
• Hispanics are an increasing percentage of the work force.  By 2014, fifteen (15%) of the workforce will be Hispanic.  Between 2004 and 2014, this workforce will increase by 7 million, from 19 million to 26 million individuals.  (US Bureau of Labor Statistics).  As we will see later on, the graduation rates for Hispanics is deplorable.

Now we are going to look at the possible downside creating huge issues with the availability of skilled workers.  Here goes:

•  The national average for graduation rates: 70 %.  Of course, this means we have a dropout rate  approximately 30%  (HORRIBLE)
• Graduation rates for the following:

1. Whites = 78%
2. Asian = 72% (This seems extremely low but the data supports this number.)
3. African-American = 55%
4. Latinos = 53% (With an increasing percentage of Latinos entering the workforce over the next few years, few will be qualified for the skilled labor jobs.)
5. Graduation rates for female workers = 75%.  Graduation for male workers = 65%
6. Graduation rates for African-American girls = 59%. Graduation rates for African-American boys = 48% (Huge gender gap!)
7. Graduation rates for Latino girls= 49%.  Graduation rates for Latino boys = 49%
8. In New York City, the percentage of African-Americans proficient in English = 33%.  For Hispanic = 34%.  For Whites and Asians = 64%.  All of these numbers (including whites) indicate a complete and utter failure on the part of our public school system.

It should be readily apparent that we are losing the Latinos and African-Americans at an alarming rate.  One study indicates that there are several reasons why an adequate education is so difficult to provide if you are an African-American or a Latino:

1. Lack of parental guidance
2. Lure of the drug trade; consequently, no perceived need for training
3. Teachers pass students because they are intimidated by the student and just want to get them out of class
4. Single parent household with no male presence
5. Babies born to unmarried students, thus creating extremely difficult living circumstances

Truly, these conditions could and do exist in Asian and Caucasian families but not to the extent we find them in black and Hispanic households.  It seems to me that one “way out” would be a high school diploma and a college degree.  I think one very important missing ingredient is the will to make a bad situation better AND proper encouragement from peers and adults.   Whatever the solution, skilled jobs needing skilled labor is and will be affected for some time to come.  To some extent, adequate talent is recruited from immigrants coming into our country, but even that has diminished considerably since 911.  The solution remains very elusive.

OBESITY VS NATIONAL DEBT

OBESITY VS NATIONAL DEBT

There was a very interesting article in our Sunday paper this past week highlighting the alarming rate of obesity in our country.  We are a FAT and Chubby country with associated “numbers” trending upward at an alarming rate.   Well there is another worrisome trend constantly mentioned in the news and that’s the national debt.  These two seemingly unrelated but problematic realities of life may not have any connection at all, but then again—let’s take another look.  Are there timelines for both that might indicate some correlation?  Is it remotely possible that from a cultural standpoint both might lend themselves to cause-effect relationships?  What, if any, common thread or threads run true to both downward-spiraling situations?  Let us look at obesity first.

OBESITY

I would like to detail several “bullets” that will alarm even the most placid reader into wondering how we got where we are today.  My information comes from the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta.

• 60 million people in the United States are “officially” obese.
• A staggering 33% of all adult Americans have a Body Mass Index (BMI ) measuring 30 or greater
• Obesity has increased 60% in the last 20 years
• Obesity-related health issues account for 300,000 deaths per year—second only to tobacco usage

We have become a fast-food nation consuming enormous amounts of carbohydrates, sugar, processed food additives, saturated fats, hydrogenated oils, sodium and other highly detrimental ingredients I probably can’t pronounce anyway.  An adult should consume no more that 65 grams of fat per day and should eat no more than 2,000 calories per day.  That caloric intake will ensure weight maintenance and, depending upon what foods you eat, will give you all of the nutrients required to maintain good and lasting health.  The following table indicates body mass index ( BMI) and can serve as a guideline for any adult.  Please take a look:

     BMI below 18.5           Underweight

     BME 18.5 to 24.9        Average

    BMI 25.0 to 29.9        Overweight                       

   BMI  30 +                       Obese

The calculation is based upon the following formula:  [Weight (pounds)/(Height)²] x 703.  Of course there are tables in various web sites that will calculate the BMI for you.   

Let’s now look at the BMI trend for our country over the years:

As you can see, from 1960 to 1980 we were trending upward ever so slightly but then came the late ’80.  Something happened and we went wild and from the early ’90s to 2004, we truly lost our way relative to diet and the foods we consume.  We threw caution to the winds between 2004 and 2009.  That brought us to our present condition.  Again, approximately 33% of our 307,946,578 population has a BMI greater than 30.  Not only a national tragedy but a national disgrace. 

NATIONAL DEBT

So much for the good news.  Now let’s look at our national debt.  (NOTE: Please don’t confuse our national debt with our deficit.  If you really want to become depressed, look at our national deficit.  Again, here are several “bullets”:

• As of 3:37 GMT, 4 March 2010, we have a public debt ( national debt ) of $12.526 trillion
• With a total population of 307,946,578, the per capita debt is $40,676.85
• Our debt grows $3.96 billion dollars for each day we breathe air
• We have a record deficit ( there’s that word again ) of $1.4 trillion.

Again, let’s represent those horrible numbers visually.  Take a look.

Notice any correlation between obesity and the national debt?  Now let’s look at another graph.

During the war years ( WW II ) you might expect a burdensome national debt.  We had to pay for horrible years between 1942 and 1945.  Going to war costs money BUT, we dug our way out and got things in control until LBJ took office as the president in the late sixties.  The “War on Poverty” might have been a wonderful thing to contemplate, but it was remarkably costly in terms of entitlement programs that would ultimately cost us the “farm”.  Nixon and Carter kept thing in check but then comes the Bush presidency.  Reagan and Bush did not help much but I suppose by the time they came into power the die was cast.  We lost control of government spending—just as we lost control of any and all self-discipline relative to our waistlines.  Our consumption of food AND national spending jumped considerably.  We could not deny ourselves.  We see it—we buy it—we eat it.

Think about it, an individual or a country, without discipline, is doomed to excesses. Weight, money, etc etc—it does not matter.  This is what has happened to our country.  We sit in front of TV an average of 4 hours per day, eating our Cheetos, drinking our “BUD” and wonder why we are so fat.  Never moving, never reaching for our gym bag, never walking more that the distance from the lounge chair to the refrigerator.  In concert, our government spends OUR money like a drunken sailor on shore leave and we wonder why we are so broke.   Well-meaning administrations made decisions designed to help us, but in the long run have truly hurt.  Both occurrences seemed to start trending upwards around the latter ‘80s.  Like a rocket in flight, we are headed to the stars.  The only problem is—we will come down again.  I suspect it will be a very very hard landing.

WHEN DO THESE GUYS WORK?

WHEN DO THESE GUYS WORK

I definitely don’t want to be overly critical but have you ever wondered when our elected officials work.  How many hours do they really put in that represent “fruitful” endeavor?   Work that truly generates results.  I have a fairly good Congressional representative ( Mr. Zack Wamp—Third Congressional District, Tennessee ) and I would imagine he puts in long hours.  I get e-mails and see stories in the Chattanooga Times-Free Press of junkets, fundraising excursions, joint meetings with other Republican “types”, dinners, luncheons, etc.  His Congressional staff is adequate ( I suppose ) to handle the routine occurrences of “every day” events in Washington D.C.  I don’t really believe Zack is into pushing the boundaries of Congressional duty or thinking out of the preverbal box.  He basically tows the party line and keeps a very low profile.   I wonder though who is minding the store.  That same feeling exists “in spades”, when we look at the travels of our brand new President.    In his case there is a feeling that ‘if I’m not on television people may think I did not win’.  God forbid “my people” would ever feel I did not win.  What would Opra think?    Not being in the public eye is taken very seriously and considered a no-win situation.   Take a look:

• 10 December          Oslo City Hall
• 2 October                 Copenhagen
• 10 August                Guadalajara
• 11 July                       Ghana
• 10 July                      The Vatican
• 6 July                         Russia
• 6 June                        France
• 5 June                        Germany
• 4 June                         Egypt
• 7 April                        Iraq
• 3 April                         France
• 6 April                         Turkey
• 3 April                         Germany
• 2 April                          UK
• 31 March                     UK
• 19 February               Canada

You talk about global warming and extending your carbon footprint.   He has not yet been in office a year and yet he has logged thousands of frequent flyer miles.  Let’s also mention that the list above represents international trips and not those taken on Air Force One for “state-side” business.   It is apparent that he is very much dependent on “others” to conduct “the people’s business”.    I suspect that every President conducts himself in about the same fashion but is it not time to vote someone in who will be the President of the United States and not strive to be “king of the world”?  Let’s take a look at several areas desperately needing Presidential oversight if not Presidential attention:

• FAA—Reorganization and new equipment were needed years ago.
• FDA—Too few inspectors, too little time
• FMEA—Are we really sure that New Orleans could withstand a CAT 3 or CAT 4 ( not to mention a CAT 5 ) hurricane?  We still don’t have this cat in the bag.
• CDC—Doing a fairly good job but needing additional attention.
• Veterans Administration—Underfunded from the get-go.
• Commerce—Do I really need to say more?  We are driving off manufacturing at an alarming rate with no real end in sight.  Have you tried to get an SBA loan lately?  Good luck!!!!!!!!!!
• Health Care—Congress has not and will not produce a “workable” solution.  Too many special-interest groups are in their pants.  They won’t be reelected without money being dumped into their PACTS.  Absolutely  no mention of fraudulent activities or tort reform in the present plan or plans.
• Education—Less than a 50% graduation rate and a full 33% of our graduates can’t read at a fifth grade level.   Skill with mathematics is at an all-time low.  Significant trouble spots; Washington D.C., Detroit, Atlanta, Kansas City, Saint Louis, etc etc.  Whole generations uneducated and we seem powerless to do anything.  One of these days a dimwit will get elected to public office and we all will pay the price.  ( Come to think about it, it’s already happened.  Can anyone say Al Frankin????????)

Make your own list but, you will have to admit no one seems to be minding the store.  I have come to believe that it not a Republican thing or a Democrat thing—it is a Washington thing.   At any rate, we need a fix and need it fast.